China's submarine cable maneuvering leaves Taiwan at risk: Report

Washington, July 21 (CNA) China could block undersea cable repair vessels if a conflict across the Taiwan Strait were to occur, a major problem for Taiwan given that more than 90 percent of its internet connectivity depends on submarine cable links, a report by intelligence advisory firm Recorded Future has said.

The assertion was made in a report titled "Submarine Cables Face Increasing Threats Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Limited Repair Capacity" released by Recorded Future's intelligence research unit Insikt Group on July 17.

Insikt said its conclusion was based on an analysis of recent territorial conflicts between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, where the China Coast Guard (CCG) has tried to block Philippine resupply operations to vessels at the Second Thomas Shoal, Scarborough Shoal, and Sabina Shoal.

In addition, the CCG and other Chinese forces have for decades interfered with vessels from other claimants in the South China Sea and vessels operated by powers outside the region, such as the United States, the report said.

"These incidents suggest that Beijing could take similar action to block repair vessels from accessing damaged submarine infrastructure in the event of a potential escalation of tension or outbreak of hostilities around Taiwan," the research group said.

The report echoed growing concerns over recent Chinese ploys to damage undersea cables around Taiwan, including an incident involving the Taiwan-Matsu No. 3 fiber-optic cable that broke down on Jan. 15.

The repairs were completed by Chunghwa Telecom Co. in early March.

Taiwan's Ministry of Digital Affairs (MODA) attributed the damage to that cable and another one linking Taiwan and Matsu to "natural deterioration."

But the many issues with undersea cables in waters around Taiwan has led to speculation that China may be engaging in "gray zone" activities -- provocative moves that fall short of outright war -- targeting Taiwan's telecommunications connections.

According to the report, in 2024 and 2025, four incidents have taken place in the Baltic Sea involving damage to eight distinct submarine cables, while five incidents occurred around Taiwan involving damage to five distinct submarine cables.

Five of the nine incidents were attributed to ships dragging their anchors, including four China- or Russia-linked vessels operating under suspicious circumstances or with opaque ownership structures.

"Geopolitical tensions -- namely, Russia's war against Ukraine and China's coercive actions toward Taiwan -- very likely remain the primary drivers of state-linked sabotage activity targeting submarine cables," the report said.

The group said the expanding role played by Chinese companies in deploying, owning, and operating submarine cables has raised the threats of espionage for the countries and companies that use them.

"Specifically, China's preparations for a potential military incursion into Taiwan and the deterioration of U.S.-China bilateral relations very likely incentivize physical attacks and intelligence collection efforts targeting the submarine cable system to undermine the economic, diplomatic, and security objectives," the group said.

To mitigate the possible challenges posed by China, the research group suggested it was critical to conduct comprehensive stress tests in a bid to improve resilience and guard against damage that would cause prolonged connectivity issues.

It also pointed to other factors countries needed to be aware of to make their communications systems more resilient to state-sponsored sabotage.

Based on three prolonged outages around the world due to cable damage, the report said lack of redundancy, lack of diversity of cable routes, and limited repair capacity were very likely to raise the risk of severe impact of damage to submarine cables.