ANALYSIS/Lai's National Day speech seeks to clarify cross-strait ties: Scholars

Taipei, Oct. 10 (CNA) President Lai Ching-te's (賴清德) National Day address on Thursday clarified the positioning of cross-strait ties by reiterating the existence of mutual non-subordination between the ROC and PRC and rejecting the PRC's right to represent Taiwan, which some have linked to United Nations' Resolution 2758, scholars said.

Making things clear

Lai's speech conveyed a sense of "turning a new page of history" by positioning the year 1949 as the dividing point between Taiwan and China, said Wang Hsin-hsien (王信賢), acting director of the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University (NCCU).

He noted that this interpretation is based on several key points made in Lai's speech, such as the Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan's official name) having already put down roots in Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. The ROC government relocated to Taiwan in 1949, when the People's Republic of China (PRC) took control of mainland China.

The NCCU professor added Lai also reiterated that "the ROC and PRC are not subordinate to each other," which he included in his inauguration speech on May 20, while noting that democracy and freedom are growing and thriving in Taiwan.

With those key points, Lai's speech drew a distinction between Taiwan and China, as well as between the ROC and the PRC, Wang said.

By clarifying the narratives related to cross-strait relations, Lai's administration broke from the ambiguity of the past and adopted a different approach to that of former President Tsai Ing-wen's (蔡英文) administration which maintained historical and cultural links between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, he added.

Echoing Wang Hsin-hsien, Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁), a political science professor at National Cheng Kung University, told CNA that Lai's speech did not follow a strategy of ambiguity but rather moved in the direction of clearer positioning.

Through remarks based on historical facts, the speech detailed the journey from the founding of the ROC in 1912 to Taiwan today, and thus came up with the statements about the ROC already putting down roots in Taiwan and mutual non-subordination between the ROC and PRC.

As to why the Lai administration's positioning on cross-strait relations has become increasingly clear, Wang Hung-jen said it is because "we can no longer retreat."

The Chinese authorities continue to wage cognitive warfare and spread propaganda to claim that "Taiwan is part of China" on the international stage, even coercing other countries to accept the "One China Principle" through aggressive means, he said.

Lai's administration thus finds it necessary to present the correct interpretation of cross-strait relations during the National Day celebrations -- a formal occasion to prevent misunderstandings in the international community, he added.

No right

Chang Wu-ueh (張五岳), director of Tamkang University's Center for Cross-Strait Relations, said that Lai made the statement "the PRC has no right to represent Taiwan" due to "the battle" between the two sides of the strait over Resolution 2758 -- a resolution adopted by the U.N. General Assembly in 1971 to address the issue of China's representation at the world body.

The resolution resulted in the ROC losing its seat at the U.N. to the PRC, but it did not mention Taiwan or even the ROC by name. Taiwan has since been excluded from membership in the U.N. and from participating in the U.N. and its affiliated bodies.

"Beijing's approach to Resolution 2758 is to strictly interpret it as including Taiwan as part of China on the international stage... the president clearly expressed that this view is unacceptable (through the statement)," Chang noted.

Beijing will not be satisfied with the statement, but it is unlikely to cross any red lines or lead to military confrontation, he added.

Kuo Yu-jen (郭育仁), chair of National Sun Yat-sen University's Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies, said that the reason Lai choose to use the phrase "has no right to" rather than "cannot" is based on the concept of right under international law, with the intention being to reject China's use of Resolution 2758 to claim representation of Taiwan in the U.N.

George Yin (尹麗喬), a senior research fellow at National Taiwan University's (NTU) Center for China Studies, noted that the statement reflects "political reality."

No surprise

In terms of Lai's stance on cross-strait relations in the speech, Yin said it contained "no surprises" and demonstrated significant continuity with Tsai's approach.

The NTU scholar noted that Lai's statement, "the ROC and the PRC are not subordinate to each other," was first introduced by Tsai in her 2021 National Day address when outlining the "Four Insistences," further demonstrating continuity from Tsai to Lai.

"There's nothing really all that new or surprising," Yin said, adding that the speech is of "high quality" because, from the perspective of international politics, the best outcome is to have no surprises.

While Lai's address on Thursday appeared to be "quite consistent" with his previous speeches, Yin noted that it also expressed a decent amount of goodwill, and there is no strong reason for Beijing to overreact to the speech.

"President Lai reiterated the importance of dialogue... and also put forth very specific proposals in terms of how Taiwan and China should initiate dialogue," Yin said, citing the examples mentioned by Lai, such as collaboration on issues like infectious diseases and climate change.

With the U.S. presidential election slated for Nov. 5, Yin predicted that Beijing would not make any major decisions on cross-strait relations before the election, as its Taiwan policy is part of its broader U.S. policy and international strategy.

Following the same vein, Chang said that Lai's speech "did not cause any major surprises," continuing the consistent stance and tone on cross-strait relations Lai has maintained since taking office in May.

"The speech did not contain the further provocative language toward Beijing that many had originally anticipated," he added.

Crossing red lines

Despite Taiwanese experts' predictions that China will not have a strong reaction to Lai's speech, Bao Chengke (包承柯), assistant director at the Institute for East Asian Studies in Shanghai, told CNA that Lai's remarks indicated that his fundamental stance on Taiwan independence has not changed and that his statements have "crossed the mainland's red line."

Bao noted that although Lai did not directly mention Resolution 2758, he still separated the ROC's expulsion from the U.N. in 1971 from the people of Taiwan and further emphasized Taiwan's development needs, which can be seen as advocating for Taiwan independence in terms of overall tone.

Lai's speech may seem to seek cooperation with China on various issues, but in essence, the foundation of the "two-state theory" has not changed, Bao added.

Li Zhenguang (李振廣), head of Beijing Union University's Taiwan Research Institute, said that from the perspective of the Chinese authorities, the mention of mutual non-subordination between the ROC and PRC is a typical "two-state theory" that China firmly opposes, describing it as "very dangerous" and detrimental to cross-strait relations.

Regarding Lai's message to China on issues such as climate change and infectious diseases, Li said that the "mutual non-subordination two-state theory" already views China as an enemy, making it difficult to interpret those messages from a perspective of goodwill.