Lai to focus speech on Taiwan, China 'not subordinate': Scholars

Taipei, Oct. 9 (CNA) Scholars are predicting that President Lai Ching-te's (賴清德) first National Day address will be consistent with previous speeches and reiterate his stance that Taiwan and China are not subordinate to each other.

Lai's speech on National Day will be similar in content and tone with previous addresses without significant changes, Chang Wu-ueh (張五岳), director of Tamkang University's Center for Cross-Strait Relations, told CNA on Tuesday.

Chang predicted that Lai will emphasize that "the Republic of China (ROC) in Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) on the mainland are not subordinate to each other."

That would repeat a statement Lai made in his inaugural address on May 20, which, along with other comments on relations with China, were criticized at the time by Chinese officials.

Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) spokesman Chen Binhua (陳斌華) criticized Lai for "stubbornly insisting on the position of Taiwan independence."

Taiwan has never been under the jurisdiction of the PRC, but Chinese officials claim that the island is an inseparable part of China's territory under the "One China" principle.

During a National Day event on Oct. 5, Lai said the PRC just celebrated its 75th birthday on Oct. 1 while the ROC will celebrate its 113th birthday in a few days, and "therefore, in terms of age, it is absolutely impossible for the PRC to be the 'motherland' of the people of the ROC."

That comment drew criticism from TAO spokesperson Zhu Fenglian (朱鳳蓮), who said Tuesday that Lai continued to promote the "new two-state theory" of mutual non-subordination between the ROC and PRC, revealing his "pro-independence stance and malicious intent to escalate hostility."

Chang said Lai's comment on the "motherland" was actually directed at some Taiwanese artists and members of the public who congratulated the "motherland" on the PRC's National Day on Oct. 1 and highlighted the notion of mutual non-subordination that is in line with the tone and stance in previous speeches.

Echoing Chang, Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁), a political science professor at National Cheng Kung University, said Lai's speech on Thursday is expected to continue along the lines of mutual non-subordination, though different interpretations or narratives may be introduced.

For Beijing, "no matter how it's interpreted, they won't be able to accept it," Wang said.

National leaders use major occasions such as inaugurations and national day ceremonies to deliver speeches that convey important messages, Wang told CNA.

For Taiwan, cross-Taiwan Strait issues are a critical topic, and Lai will inevitably express goodwill, criticism, or disagreements toward Chinese authorities in his National Day speech.

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) said Tuesday, meanwhile, that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will launch a satellite launch vehicle (SLV) on Thursday from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in Sichuan province, China.

The Long March 3B/E carrier rocket, which NASASpaceflight said is rumored to be carrying a "Weixing Hulianwang Gaogui 03 satellite," will head toward the Western Pacific and fly in space over Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ), according to the MND.

Wang argued that the launch is not a coincidence but a deliberate action, as the PLA often engages in activities to intimidate and pressure regional countries, largely with the intention of making those neighboring countries exert pressure on Taiwan.

China's intention, however, may not be fully understood by those neighboring countries, Wang said, arguing that what they mostly perceive is that "China poses a threat to their country."

The Oct. 10 mission will be one of at least a dozen satellite launches by China in the past 21 months with a flight path over Taiwan or its ADIZ, none of which have threatened or hurt Taiwan's security because the rockets have left the Earth's atmosphere by the time they pass over Taiwan.

Most recently, a Long March-4B carrier rocket carrying remote sensing satellites was launched from Sichuan on Sept. 3, 2024 that also flew above Taiwan's ADIZ.

At the time, Taiwan's MND said it presented no risk to Taiwan because it was flying at a high enough altitude above the ADIZ.