Taiwan's population projected to nearly halve by 2075: NDC

Taipei, Aug. 28 (CNA) Taiwan's population could nearly halve by 2075 amid a falling birth rate and an aging society, according to a population projection for 2026-2075 released by the National Development Council (NDC) on Friday.

The projection is the NDC's biennial updates of hypothetical scenarios based on the latest household registration data, including births, deaths and migration, to provide an objective picture of long-term population trends.

The NDC estimated that Taiwan's population will fall 48 percent from 2026 to 12.15 million in 2075.

The impact of a falling birth rate and an aging population will become increasingly apparent, with Taiwan's population falling below 20 million for the first time since 1989 in 2045, reaching 19.98 million, the NDC said.

In 2045, people aged 0-14 are projected to account for 5.2 percent of Taiwan's total population, while those aged 65 and above will make up 37.0 percent.

By 2075, the proportion of people aged 0-14 is expected to fall to 4.8 percent, while the proportion aged 65 and above will rise to 52.9 percent.

Citing Ministry of the Interior data, the NDC said Taiwan's total fertility rate fell to 0.695 in 2025, significantly lower than the council's previous estimate of 0.87.

The NDC said the number of women aged 20-49 has been declining since peaking in 2005, while the marriage rate among women in that age group has also fallen year by year, further shrinking the potential childbearing population.

Starting in 2037, more than half of Taiwan's working-age population is expected to be aged 45-64, the NDC said.

By 2075, the working-age population of 15-64 is projected to shrink by 10.67 million, or 67 percent, over the 50-year period, significantly tightening the labor supply, the council said.

The NDC said the potential support ratio -- the number of working-age people relative to each elderly person -- is expected to continue declining, while the dependency ratio -- the number of children and elderly people relative to every 100 working-age people -- is projected to rise.

In 2035, the potential support ratio is expected to stand at 2.2, while the dependency ratio will reach 55.2. By 2075, the potential support ratio is projected to fall to 0.8, while the dependency ratio will rise to 136.6, the NDC said.

The NDC said the number of newborns in Taiwan fell to a record low of 107,812 in 2025, marking the 10th consecutive year of decline.

Hsieh Chia-yi (謝佳宜), head of the NDC's Department of Human Resources Development, said the number of newborns is likely to decline further this year, to 92,000-97,000 with the median at 94,000.

Compared with South Korea, where the marriage rate and the number of women of childbearing age have shown signs of rebounding, helping boost the birth rate, Hsieh said both indicators in Taiwan have continued to decline, putting further downward pressure on the birth rate.