Taiwan's population of young people shrinking, 85+ to rise above 500K: NDC

Taipei, Sept. 2 (CNA) Taiwan's population faces two key milestones in 2027: the number of 18-year-olds will fall below 200,000 and the 85-and-older group will surpass 500,000 for the first time, according to the latest government projections.

Taiwan's 18-year-olds, the typical age for entering college, will fall below 200,000 for the first time in the 2027 academic year to 195,309, down from 200,406 in 2026. The figure is projected to decline further to less than 150,000 by 2040, according to the NDC.

The 15-year-old high-school-bound population is projected to fall from 189,168 in the 2026 academic year to 122,566 by 2040 -- a drop of 66,602, or 35 percent, the report showed.

During the same period, populations in younger age groups will fall even more sharply, by more than half.

The number of junior high school entrants (age 12) is projected to fall from 207,790 in the 2026 academic year to 88,519 (down 57.3 percent) by 2040. Primary school entrants (age 6) will drop from 169,420 to 75,311 (down 55.6 percent), according to the NDC.

The demographic decline across all educational tiers will force school closures, mergers, and class reductions, weakening the nation's labor supply and capacity for talent development, the NDC stated in a news release.

At the other end of the age spectrum, the 85-and-older group is projected to rise from 484,168 (9.97 percent of all seniors) in 2026 to 503,723 (9.99 percent) in 2027, surpassing the half-million mark for the first time, the projections by the National Development Council (NDC) released on Friday showed.

That figure is expected to top 1 million by 2039, the NDC said.

For the senior population as a whole, the NDC projected that the share of adults aged 65 and older will reach 30 percent of the population (6.52 million) by 2037, after crossing the 20 percent threshold in 2025, which at that time made Taiwan officially a super-aged society.

According to NDC projections, Taiwan's population is set to drop from the current figure of 23.19 million to under 20 million by 2045. Meanwhile, the median age will climb from 46.4 to 57.2.

Projections show that seniors aged 65 and older will make up 41 percent of Taiwan's total population by 2050, marking a historical peak.

By 2051, the working-age population (aged 15 to 64) will drop below 10 million, shrinking to 53.4 percent of the total population, according to NDC projections.

Meanwhile, the population aged 65 and older is projected to reach its peak around 2050 at roughly 7.7 million, before exceeding half of the total population (50.4 percent) by 2065.