Recall failure could make raising defense spending harder: Scholar

Washington, July 28 (CNA) The failure of Saturday's mass recall vote could make it more difficult for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration to increase Taiwan's defense spending given its legislative minority, according to an American scholar.

The DPP and civic groups were unable to oust any of the 24 opposition Kuomintang (KMT) legislators they targeted in the recall campaign, meaning that the KMT and the smaller opposition Taiwan People's Party (TPP) will keep their majority in the legislative body.

In an email reply to a CNA inquiry, Thomas Shattuck, senior program manager of the University of Pennsylvania's Perry World House, said the result will not change the status quo in bilateral relations between United States and Taiwan and will not affect ties much.

However, "the Trump administration will likely continue to pressure Taipei to spend more money on defense, which President Lai (Ching-te 賴清德) will have a harder time doing without a DPP majority in the Legislative Yuan," Shattuck said.

In April, John Noh, U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs said in a House Armed Services Committee hearing that Taiwan has promised to raise defense spending to exceed 3 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP).

According to Noh, Taiwan has to "do significantly more" in defense spending to strengthen asymmetric warfare capabilities.

Raymond Kou (郭泓均), head of the U.S.-based think tank RAND's Taiwan Policy Initiative, said ties between Washington and Taipei will be determined by how the opposition camp responds to government defense spending proposals.

Kuo said with local elections slated for 2026, some political observers, including associate research fellow at the Institute of Political Science of Academia Sinica Nathan Batto, believe the opposition camp could moderate their policies and rhetoric.

Others, however, think the opposition parties could go "scorched earth" to further obstruct the DPP government, Kuo said.

"If the opposition parties moderate, then there's still a chance for compromise, particularly on increasing the defense and foreign policy budget. That would align with U.S. priorities, especially in improving both conventional defenses and whole of society resilience.

"If, however, the opposition parties do not moderate, then we're in for a sustained period of gridlock," Kuo said.

"I would expect the defense budget to remain below 3 percent of GDP, unless the Lai government gives on significant domestic priorities."

In case of a failure to raise defense spending, Kuo said, Taiwan could pause certain military programs, such as its indigenous submarine plans, to prioritize other areas that would enhance asymmetric defense.

"Either way, this makes it harder for Taiwan as a whole to demonstrate to Washington that it is taking its security seriously, inevitably raising questions in the U.S. about its posture and commitments," Kuo said.

The DPP's 2025 defense budget proposed a 6.6 percent increase in defense spending to NT$647 billion, or about 2.5 percent of GDP.

The opposition only cut the budget by about 1.2 percent, but froze about NT$90 billion pending actions by the government.

In 2024, the ruling DPP retained the presidency with Lai winning the election, but lost its majority in the Legislative Yuan.

The KMT holds 52 seats, while the DPP has 51 and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) eight. Two independents align with the KMT, which has often worked with the TPP to pass favored bills, drawing criticism from the DPP, paving the way for the unprecedented mass recall vote.

Another seven KMT lawmakers are up for recall on Aug. 23