Explainer: Mass slate of recall votes leaves KMT staring down disaster

A potentially seismic political moment is unfolding in Taiwan, with most directly elected lawmakers from the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) facing the prospect of early ejection from office as part of an unprecedented series of recall votes scheduled for July 26.

1. How many KMT legislators are facing recall votes?

According to the Central Election Commission's (CEC) announcement on June 20, recall votes will be held on July 26 for 24 KMT lawmakers, including KMT legislative caucus whip Fu Kun-chi (傅崐萁), Wang Hung-wei (王鴻薇), the KMT caucus' secretary-general, and Wang's deputy Lo Chih-chiang (羅智強).

Other notable names include Lai Shyh-bao (賴士葆) and Lin Te-fu (林德福), both of whom are serving their seventh term, as well as four-term Legislator Lu Yu-ling (呂玉玲) and KMT Deputy Secretary-General Lee Yen-hsiu (李彥秀).

According to CEC data, recall bids have been filed against 35 of KMT's 39 lawmakers directly elected to the Legislature on Jan. 13, 2024, with seven proposals still pending review by local election authorities.

The timeline for completing such a review process remains uncertain, and the CEC declined to comment on the matter when asked by CNA for clarification.

2. What sparked the current recall efforts targeting KMT lawmakers?

The current wave of recalls was initiated by civil society groups opposed to a series of legislative measures adopted by the KMT and the smaller Taiwan People's Party (TPP), which opponents argue will undermine Taiwan's constitutional order and weaken efforts to bolster defense capabilities against growing Chinese military threats.

Campaigners are particularly critical of opposition-backed efforts to slash government spending, citing 6.6 percent cuts and 4.6 percent freezes to the central government's proposed NT$3.13 trillion (US$105.85 billion) budget for the fiscal year 2025.

However, none of these measures would have passed the 113-seat Legislature without the support of the TPP's eight lawmakers, who cannot be recalled because they were elected through the party-list system.

The KMT has described the recall movement, supported by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), as politically motivated and accused the ruling party of using recalls to eliminate the opposition.

The KMT has urged voters to reject the recall initiatives at the ballot box to "oppose one-party dominance by the DPP" and "defend democracy."

3. Are there recall bids launched against DPP lawmakers?

KMT-affiliated groups have also initiated recalls against 15 of the DPP's 38 directly elected legislators, but most of these efforts failed. Only two proposals remain active and are still in the signature-gathering phase in the second stage.

Under Taiwan's Public Officials Election and Recall Act, to trigger a recall vote, campaigners must first gather signatures from at least 1 percent of eligible voters in a constituency, then collect signatures from 10 percent in the second stage.

4. When will the recall votes take place?

The recall votes for the 24 KMT lawmakers are scheduled for July 26.

For a recall vote to pass, the number of votes in favor of removing a lawmaker must exceed the number of votes against. The number of votes in favor must also represent at least a quarter of all eligible voters in a given constituency.

Once the CEC confirms that a recall vote has passed, a by-election must be held within three months to select a replacement. Lawmakers who have been recalled are not allowed to run in the by-election.

If a recall vote fails to oust a lawmaker, no further recall proposals can be filed against them during their remaining term in office.

5. How many recall votes have been held for lawmakers and local officials? What were the outcomes of those past recall votes?

According to the CEC, a total of four recall votes involving sitting lawmakers have been held in Taiwan to date, with only then-Taichung Legislator Chen Po-wei (陳柏惟) -- a member of the Taiwan Statebuilding Party at the time -- being successfully removed from office in 2021.

The other three recall elections -- targeting KMT's Tsai Cheng-yuan (蔡正元) in Taipei in 2015, Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌), then a member of the New Power Party, in New Taipei in 2017, and Freddy Lim (林昶佐), an independent at the time, in Taipei in 2022 -- all failed to meet the legal thresholds required for removal from office.

As for mayors, one recall vote was successful: then-Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) of the KMT was removed from office in 2020, making him the first sitting mayor in Taiwan to be recalled.

Another mayoral recall election took place in 2024, involving Keelung Mayor Hsieh Kuo-liang (謝國樑), also of the KMT, but it failed to meet the legal threshold for removal.