ANALYSIS / China's new missiles may deter aid to Taiwan: Experts

Taipei, Sept. 3 (CNA) The array of new missile systems unveiled at a military parade in Beijing on Wednesday, while not specifically designed for a Taiwan invasion, could deter foreign forces from intervening in a cross-strait conflict, according to defense experts.

Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) hosted the parade in Tiananmen Square to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II and the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression. With more than 20 international leaders in attendance, Xi inspected a grand display of military weapons, including previously unseen models.

Missiles target foreign intervention

Among them were the "YJ," or "Eagle Strike," family of hypersonic anti-ship missiles, including YJ-17, YJ-19 and YJ-20, which defense experts say can be deployed to strengthen China's anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) posture near the Taiwan Strait.

For example, the YJ-19 has a range of 1,440 kilometers and is capable of striking ships deployed as far as the Second Island Chain, which stretches from Japan to Guam and Indonesia, said Kao Chih-jung (高志榮), a researcher at Taiwan's government-owned Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR).

However, these missiles are unlikely to pose a significant threat to Taiwan's Navy, he said.

"There is no way we're going to put our main battleships in the Taiwan Strait at the opening stage of a war. We'll try to move them all to the east coast," Kao said.

The anti-ship missiles, therefore, would pose a greater threat to American vessels that come to Taiwan's aid should Washington decide to intervene, he argued.

Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), a research fellow at the INDSR, agreed.

"The YJ family of missiles will strengthen China's A2/AD posture around Taiwan. They would cut off foreign fleets, preventing them from approaching the Taiwan Strait," Su said.

Su also called attention to the DF-61 intercontinental ballistic missile, the JL-3 intercontinental-range submarine-launched ballistic missile, and the AJX002 underwater drone, all of which made their debut on Wednesday.

These weapons would serve the purpose of "political denial," as they can be outfitted with nuclear warheads to dissuade other countries from providing Taiwan with logistical support or sending troops to defend it should war break out in the Strait, Su told CNA.

Stealth drones add new threats

Kao said other potential threats to Taiwan included what appeared to be four new stealth attack drone models displayed at the parade.

Speaking to CNA, the scholar noted that the four drone models, rolled out after a GJ-11 stealth drone, lacked vertical stabilizers and were shaped like stealth fighter jets.

In combat, these drone models could be deployed alongside fighter jets to more effectively establish air supremacy over enemy fighter jets, he said.

Due to their stealth capabilities, they would also increase psychological pressure on enemy pilots, limiting their movements, he added.

When outfitted with ammunition, the drones will pose a risk to Taiwan's military bases and other ground targets, Kao said, suggesting close monitoring of future testing of the drones and their official introduction into the People's Liberation Army.