New South Korean government unlikely to commit to Taiwan's defense: Expert

Washington, June 19 (CNA) An international security expert said Wednesday that newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-myung's rhetoric suggests his administration is more likely to pursue economic cooperation with Taiwan than a defense alliance.

Even before his election, the new South Korean leader said South Korea would keep its distance if a cross-strait conflict occurred during his term.

After a conference held by the Center for Strategic amd International Studies, international security expert Eun A Jo told CNA that South Korean President Lee Jae-myung is unlikely to commit to a defense partnership with Taiwan.

She said that as a self-described "pragmatist and realist," Lee defines South Korea's interests differently from the strategic clarity pursued by his predecessor, Yoon Suk-yeol.

Jo said South Korea is more concerned about potential spillover effects in North Korea and how it might respond in the event of a cross-strait conflict.

Given the threat from North Korea, Jo said South Korea may lack the capacity to join a coalition in a Taiwan contingency.

"I think these are kind of part of the issues that will end up becoming negotiated in a bundle with the Trump administration," she said. "So there could be a movement, but I don't see the current South Korean administration in particular being interested in any kind of explicit commitment to defend Taiwan during a contingency."

Regarding U.S. President Donald Trump, Jo said the administration appears to be considering making U.S. forces in South Korea more "strategically flexible" to respond to potential conflicts beyond the Korean Peninsula.

On potential Taiwan-South Korea cooperation beyond defense, Jo said both countries share interests in managing Trump's tariffs, regional economic integration and reducing economic dependence on China.

"That's a key shared interest between both South Korea and Taiwanese governments," she said, "and I'm sure they're all looking toward diversifying trade partners. So wherever synergies exist, it'll be in economic integration."

She added that economic partnerships would likely focus on semiconductors, alongside traditional areas like trade and investment.

"Both are interested in reducing economic dependence on China and exposure to a sort of foreign economic coercion, and also facing a lot of potential hurdles with the Trump administration's ongoing tariff policy," said Jo. "So that's where I see a lot of potential synergy for cooperation."

Jo shared her observations following Wednesday's "Looking Forward: The Future of United States-Japan-Korea Trilateral Relations" conference, co-hosted by CSIS and the Korea Foundation in Washington, D.C.