Analyst warns Air Force may be losing more pilots to early retirement

Taipei, Sept. 4 (CNA) A sharp rise in penalties paid by Air Force officers who leave before completing their required service could indicate an increase in pilots retiring early, a military analyst said Friday, warning that the trend could worsen a shortage of experienced personnel.

Chieh Chung (揭仲), a researcher at the Association for Strategic Foresight, made the warning as Taiwan's overall number of volunteer military personnel is expected to increase next year.

The budgeted headcount for volunteer military personnel, including officers, noncommissioned officers and enlisted soldiers, is set at 158,223 in 2027, up 4,258 from 153,965 in 2026, Chieh said.

The increase includes 2,044 volunteer soldiers, bringing their budgeted headcount to 30,480 next year, he said.

It marks the first increase in the number of volunteer service members since 2024, which Chieh attributed to increases in duty and combat allowances that took effect in April 2025, as well as a reduction in nonessential duties.

Air Force staffing, however, appears to be moving in the opposite direction, with penalties collected by Air Force headquarters from officers who leave before completing their required service more than doubling since 2025.

The Air Force has budgeted NT$50.59 million (US$1.6 million) in 2027 for such penalties paid by commissioned and noncommissioned officers, about 2.5 times the NT$20.26 million budgeted in 2025, Chieh said.

Because Air Force pilots face substantially higher penalties than other personnel when they leave before completing their required service, Chieh said the sharp increase likely reflects a rise in premature retirements among pilots.

Senior pilot shortage raises concerns

At the same time, incentive payments earmarked for pilots who remain in service beyond their minimum required period have declined for four consecutive years, falling from NT$838.28 million in 2023 to NT$755.78 million in 2027, a decrease of about 10 percent.

The incentive is intended to retain majors, lieutenant colonels and colonels who have completed their minimum required service period, Chieh said, adding that the decline suggests the departure of senior pilots in key leadership roles has not slowed.

Many pilots who leave the Air Force early subsequently become commercial airline pilots, Chieh added.

"This could lead to an imbalance in the ratio between senior and junior pilots," Chieh said, warning that it could create a gap in the Air Force's combat capabilities even if the required number of pilots is eventually met.

The issue is particularly concerning given the Air Force's plan to add 107 pilot officers to a newly established fighter wing that will operate the 66 F-16C/D Block 70 fighter jets Taiwan has committed to purchasing from the United States, Chieh said.

The first two or three F-16 Block 70s purchased by Taiwan are expected to be delivered to the Air Force in the coming days.

Asked by CNA what could have contributed to the high turnover among Air Force pilots, Chieh said the increased number of sorties and military drills resulting from China's stepped-up "gray zone" incursions and harassment around Taiwan was likely a major factor.