Domestic needs to drive next Trump-Xi meeting: Scholar

Taipei, Sept. 4 (CNA) Domestic political considerations in both the United States and China are likely to drive the agenda of the next meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), a Taiwanese scholar said Friday.

Wang Hsin-hsien (王信賢), director of National Chengchi University's Institute of International Relations, made the assessment during a Q&A session at a book launch in Taipei.

Wang said both Washington and Beijing sought "strategic stability" at Trump and Xi's first meeting in Beijing in May, but he described the outcome as closer to "tactical stability."

"It is like two boxers agreeing to take a break," Wang said. "The break does not end the fight; it is preparation for the next round."

The anticipated second meeting, expected to take place on Sept. 24 in Washington, should therefore be viewed not only through the lens of bilateral relations, but also in terms of the two leaders' respective domestic needs, he said.

Ahead of the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3, Trump will likely seek commitments from China to purchase more U.S. products, including Boeing aircraft, soybeans and beef, Wang said.

Xi, meanwhile, needs to demonstrate that he can manage relations with Washington as China prepares for major Communist Party meetings, Wang said.

Taiwan is likely to receive less attention than at the first Trump-Xi meeting, when Beijing made what it calls the threat of "Taiwan independence" a top priority, Wang said.

That will be in part because the U.S. will have more influence over the agenda this time, given that the meeting is being held in Washington, Wang said.

A wider range of issues are also expected to be addressed at the upcoming summit, including trade, tariffs, technology, supply chains, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, Wang said.

Among China watchers in the United States, there are few expectations of breakthroughs.

Craig Singleton, senior director for China at the nonpartisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies, was quoted as saying by U.S. business news outlet CNBC that "the relationship increasingly produces transactions without trust and stability without settlement."

"It's a low-expectations summit focused largely on managing the stalemate rather than resolving it," he said.

Possible fault lines over trade and Iran that may have to be managed were evident in recent weeks.

At the G20 finance ministers' summit that concluded on Sept. 1, China faced pressure to reduce the massive trade surplus that is an important component of its economy.

Beijing was the only country objecting to a provision that urged "countries with excessive and persistent external surpluses" to stop distorting trade, according to the CNBC report.

On Iran, the U.S. has unveiled a plan to sanction Iran's business partners to put further pressure on the Islamaic republic, but that would put China, which is easily Iran's biggest trade partner, in direct conflict with the U.S.

Given Trump's low poll numbers and possible loss of control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in November, it is not clear if anything he can get from the September meeting would reverse his party's fortunes.

Meanwhile, at the same event Friday, National Taiwan University political science professor Chang Teng-chi (張登及) said China was seeking to add Chinese elements to the international system and maximize its interests without completely replacing existing institutions.

The event marked the publication of the Chinese-language book "當代中國對外關係概論," whose title can be roughly translated as "An Introduction to Contemporary China's Foreign Relations." Chang and Wang served as its co-editors.

The book, which combines major theories with contemporary case studies, examines China's foreign policy decision-making and its relations with major powers and neighboring countries.

It also covers head-of-state diplomacy, the Belt and Road Initiative, territorial disputes, and the international order, and includes discussion questions intended to encourage reflection on China's foreign policy.