INTERVIEW/Harris to keep Biden's Taiwan approach; Trump transactional: Ryan Hass

Washington, Aug. 22 (CNA) Kamala Harris is unlikely to deviate from U.S. President Joe Biden's Taiwan policy, but rival Donald Trump may push for a more "transactional" approach if elected, Ryan Hass, a U.S. researcher and former White House official, has told CNA.

In an interview on Tuesday, Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center and the Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies at the Brookings Institution, analyzed the potential impact on Taiwan if Harris or Trump wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

According to Hass, who served as the director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia at the United States National Security Council from 2013 to 2017, Harris, the current U.S. vice president, would "broadly continue the Biden administration's approach" to Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific region.

Harris formally accepted the Democratic presidential nomination on Thursday night, one month after Biden ended his reelection bid and endorsed his vice president.

"She has been in the room receiving intelligence briefings, participating in policy talks for the past four years. She has been by President Biden's side and has been involved in every major decision," Hass said.

Describing the Democratic candidate's view of the region as "more holistic and conceptual," Hass explained that the Democratic candidate emphasizes America's solidarity with its allies and regional networking, particularly in the face of challenges posed by Beijing.

This stance draws a line between her and Trump, the Republican nominee, Hass said.

"[Harris] views the idea of working with friends as an additive to American power rather than a drain on American power," while Trump has expressed his opinion that allies are drawing from American power rather than contributing to it, Hass noted.

He described Trump as a "fairly transactional" politician who focuses on measurable and quantifiable outcomes, such as trade balances and military spending, to demonstrate his effectiveness compared to previous presidents.

Hass predicted that if former President Trump returns to the White House, he would likely pressure Taiwan to significantly increase its defense spending.

During an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek in July, Trump suggested that Taiwan should pay Washington for protection.

Reflecting on Trump's single term in office from 2016 to 2020, Hass said, "He spent a lot of time thinking about Taiwan in the context of U.S.-China competition, as opposed to thinking of Taiwan as Taiwan."

Walz vs. Vance

Regarding the vice-presidential candidates, Hass highlighted Minnesota Governor Tim Walz's direct interactions with people in Taiwan and China. He suggested that these experiences would prevent Walz from relying on ideological or abstract views when assessing developments in the region.

"He sees the human faces and understands the human lives that are impacted by geopolitical events and in the stresses that they create," Hass explained, emphasizing that Walz has been consistently outspoken about the Chinese people deserving better governance.

Walz, now 60, has visited China about 30 times and was a teacher in Guangdong Province just after the Tiananmen Square Massacre took place in Beijing on June 4, 1989.

On the other hand, Hass pointed out that J.D. Vance, 40, a senator from Ohio and the Republican nominee for vice president, believes that the war between Russia and Ukraine is more of a European issue and is more concerned with stability across the Taiwan Strait.

This approach is debatable, Hass said, because Russia's potential success could present geopolitical threats to the U.S. as well.

"It would embolden China and endanger Taiwan. So, I actually understand the logic of Senator Vance's view, I just don't agree with him," Hass said.

However, Hass stressed that whether it is Walz or Vance, the U.S. vice president plays a limited role in shaping policy on China and Taiwan, given that they generally serve as close advisors rather than decision-makers on these critical issues.

"On issues like Taiwan or China, cross-strait issues, I think that that's an issue that is of such significance and importance to America's long-term interests. That's an issue that typically resides in the hands of the president."

Regardless of which party wins, Hass said the U.S. has consistently prioritized maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, with strong support from Congress for Taiwan.

"Americans don't like seeing friends bullied by stronger powers. There's an instinct to stand up for those being pushed around by major powers, partly because of shared values," he said.