China cyberattacks may be precursor to Taiwan Strait conflict: Expert

Rome, June 17 (CNA) A Japanese cybersecurity strategist has voiced concern at a security conference in Rome that China's cyberattacks and its cutting of undersea communications cables in the Taiwan Strait could be omens of possible conflict in the region in the future.

Mihoko Matsubara, chief cybersecurity strategist at Japan's Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, said during a panel discussion at a NATO Defense College Foundation conference on Tuesday that a hot war had yet to break out in the Taiwan Strait, but cyberattacks had already begun.

A Cisco systems report in March 2025 confirmed that Chinese state-sponsored actors "have been attacking Taiwanese critical infrastructure services, and the tactics and targets are very similar to that of [one of those actors] 'Volt Typhoon,'" she said.

Their ultimate goal, she said, was "to cause chaos, to create disruptions in the decision making processes, and to deter and delay the deployment of the U.S. forces to the region in the case of conflicts in the Taiwan Strait."

"So it is very concerning, and we may have been already seeing a potential precursor to conflict in the Taiwan Strait," she warned.

According to Matsubara, there have been examples of the "Volt Typhoon" group penetrating infrastructure in the United States, India and Singapore, but none yet in Japan or Taiwan.

Another "concerning" indicator in the region that may also portend conflict was the cutting of undersea cables, Matsubara said.

While cable cuts can happen anytime and anywhere in the world, such incidents have happened more frequently near the Taiwan Strait compared to the rest of the world, with the frequency going up this year, which is "strange," she said.

Matsubara would not rule out conflict coming within the "Davidson Window" of 2027.

The "Davidson Window" refers to former U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Philip Davidson's 2021 remark that China's threat may "manifest during this decade, in fact, in the next six years."

Matsubara said the 2027 date has been repeated by several U.S. officials, including former Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns, current Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Meanwhile, she urged Europe to take security in the Taiwan Strait seriously, noting that Taiwan produces over 60 percent of the world's semiconductors and more than 90 percent of its advanced chips.

In addition, over 20 percent of global trade comes through the Taiwan Strait, and that 30,000 European citizens currently reside in Taiwan.

"Are you sure you can ... relocate all of the 30,000 European citizens safely and securely from Taiwan to Europe if anything happened to the Taiwan Strait?" she said.

The high-level conference, titled "Indo-Pacific 2025: Prevention and Dialogue," is being held in Rome on Tuesday and Wednesday and bringing together international experts to explore practical initiatives, according to the NATO foundation.

The conference is focused on enhancing cooperation with Indo-Pacific partners, countering hybrid threats, and supporting a stable, rules-based regional order through NATO's cooperative frameworks, according to the foundation.