China's drills reflect 'gunboat diplomacy' to counter U.S.: Scholars

Taipei, March 1 (CNA) The Chinese military is engaging in "gunboat diplomacy" by holding unannounced live-fire drills near Taiwan as well as Australia and New Zealand to demonstrate its intent on counterbalancing the United States, scholars told CNA.

A zone was set up by the Chinese military in international waters about 40 nautical miles (74 kilometers) off the coasts of Kaohsiung and Pingtung County on Feb. 26 for "shooting exercises" without giving Taiwan prior notice, the Ministry of National Defense said that day.

Prior to that, on Feb. 21 and 22, three Chinese warships conducted a live-fire exercise in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, also without notifying the authorities of the two Oceanian nations in advance, according to an Associated Press report.

Live rounds were actually fired in the drills near New Zealand but were not in the drills near Taiwan, but arrangements had to be made in both cases to reroute civilian aircraft, including some in mid-flight, around the zones.

Lin Ying-yu (林穎佑), an assistant professor at Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, told CNA on Friday that such moves could be seen as a response to recent military and diplomatic events related to the U.S.

These include a U.S.-Japan-France joint naval drill in the Philippine Sea, a removal of a line stating the U.S. does not support Taiwan's independence on the U.S. State Department's website, and the release of previously frozen U.S. foreign aid with US$870 million in security exemptions for programs in Taiwan, Lin noted.

The drills conducted by the Chinese military in international waters without prior notice were a form of "gunboat diplomacy," Lin said, with Beijing using military actions to send political signals to those countries and beyond.

He argued that whether or not the Chinese military issues a prior announcement before a drill depends on the exercise's scale and its associated political intent, with Beijing more likely to publicize larger-scale exercises.

Lin cited two examples of large-scale drills that were announced beforehand -- the "Joint Sword-2024" exercises and the military encirclement of Taiwan following then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit in 2022.

Having Chinese warships carry out exercises off Taiwan's southern coast and conduct drills near Australia and New Zealand also signaled China's intent to show its ability to block U.S. military intervention in Taiwan-related affairs from the western and southern Pacific, he said.

The maneuvers could also be seen, he said, as a reaction to the U.S. military's longstanding policy of "freedom of navigation operations" -- which asserts the U.S. right to "operate wherever international law allows."

The Chinese military wanted to show that its warships could also assert their rights to such freedoms of passage in international waters, as well as back up the claim that "China is now capable of keeping up with the U.S.," Lin said.

Echoing Lin, Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), director of the Division of Defense Strategy and Resources at the Taiwan military-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said the Chinese military is increasingly engaging in "gunboat diplomacy" as its fleet continues to expand and mature.

In the past, when regional tensions arose, U.S. aircraft carriers would typically move into the area as a response, Su said, and the Chinese military currently appears to be mimicking that approach.

Regarding the timing of the Chinese military setting up an exercise zone off Taiwan's southern coast, Su said it could be linked to recent deepening military cooperation between Taiwan and the U.S.

In the short term, China wants to project military strength and intimidate Taiwan by conducting the drills at specific times, while from a long-term geopolitical perspective, it is attempting to shift from a land-based to maritime power, Su said.

While similar unannounced drills by the Chinese military in international waters may occur more frequently in the future, Su said there are no binding international regulations requiring prior notification of such exercises to other countries.

He criticized such actions by the Chinese military in international waters, however, as highly irresponsible and potentially posing a threat to maritime navigation.