China's missile launch into the Pacific sends message to U.S.: Analysts

Taipei, Sept. 26 (CNA) China's rare test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday was likely intended to send a message of deterrence to the United States, according to analysts.

According to China's Defense Ministry, an ICBM carrying a dummy warhead was launched at 8:44 a.m. Wednesday (China Standard Time) as part of a routine training exercise by the PLA's Rocket Force.

The missile fell into "expected sea areas" in the Pacific Ocean, the ministry said, without specifying an exact location.

Authorities in French Polynesia later said that the missile had landed in waters near the islands' exclusive economic zone, and that China had sent advance notification to France.

Shu Hsiao-huang (舒孝煌), an associate research fellow at the Institute for Defense and Security Research, said the test marked the first time in 44 years China has launched an ICBM into the Pacific.

China typically tests long-range missiles over its own territory. It last launched an ICBM into the South Pacific in 1980.

Shu said the launch was likely intended as a message to the United States, which has steadily expanded its presence in the Indo-Pacific in recent years, putting pressure on China.

Beijing, in turn, has formed an alliance and increasingly conducts joint military drills with Russia, he said.

As for the logic and timing of the test, Shu said that in an era of "great power competition," countries need to continually improve their strategic deterrence capabilities.

In addition, Beijing may have wanted to show that the Rocket Force's readiness has not been negatively impacted, after several of its senior leaders were removed during an anti-graft purge last year, Shu said.

Based on images released by the Chinese military, the ICBM used in the test launch was likely a Dongfeng-31 AG, which has a range of around 12,000 kilometers, according to Yang Tai-yuan (楊太源), a researcher at Tamkang University's Center for Advanced Technology.

China also has Dongfeng-41 and JL-3 ICBMs, which have ranges of over 13,500 km and are capable of hitting the United States' East Coast, Yang said.

For that reason, Wednesday's test launch sends a message to Washington that China maintains a nuclear second-strike capability, and possesses the ability to deter U.S. intervention if a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, Yang said.