DEFENSE/U.S.-China steady barring Taiwan, Philippines attack: Ex-Trump staffer

Washington, Nov. 13 (CNA) The United States can maintain a workable relationship with China as long as Beijing does not take military action against Taiwan or the Philippines, former U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien has said.

In an audio interview with Foreign Affairs released Thursday, O'Brien said the current term of his former boss, U.S. President Donald Trump, is dominated by rebuilding the U.S. military, securing the southern border, and managing crises in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran.

Given these preoccupations, "as long as the Chinese stay out of Taiwan and don't invade Taiwan, and hopefully don't invade and take over Scarborough Shoal [a disputed reef in the South China Sea] and invade the Philippines, I think we can probably get along with the Chinese," O'Brien said.

O'Brien, who now heads the geopolitical advisory firm, American Global Strategies, added that Trump "felt in his gut" that Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) would not launch an attack on Taiwan or the Philippines while Trump is in office.

After returning from an October meeting with Xi on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea, Trump told reporters he had not discussed Taiwan with the Chinese leader.

However, in a subsequent 60 Minutes interview, Trump said China would not move against Taiwan while he is president because China's leaders "know the consequences."

"People were a little surprised at that," Trump said in the program. "He [Xi] never brought it up, because he understands it very well. Taiwan is a very interesting case. It's 69 miles away from China. We're 9,500 miles away. But that doesn't matter. He understands what will happen."

Trump again declined to say how the U.S. would respond if China attacked Taiwan. "I can't give away my secrets," he said. "I don't want to be one of these guys that tells you exactly what's gonna happen if something happens."

In a Nov. 5 Foreign Affairs article, O'Brien argued that a second Trump administration would restore the "peace through strength" posture of Trump's first term.

He noted that in addition to the 2026 defense budget, Trump has accelerated defense spending by allocating an additional US$150 billion. "Peace through strength is delivering stability and security," O'Brien said.