DEFENSE/Growing number of Taiwanese want bigger defense budget: Poll

Taipei, May 7 (CNA) Fifty-one percent of Taiwanese support increasing Taiwan's defense budget, including 44 percent in favor of a "significant increase," a recent survey commissioned by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) has found.

That marked an increase of 4 percentage points from a previous poll in January 2025 and was the first time support for increasing the defense budget had surpassed 50 percent, according to the INDSR, a think tank supported by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense.

The results, published last month in a report authored by Lee Kuan-chen (李冠成) of the INDSR's Division of Chinese Politics, Military and Warfighting Concepts, also showed strong public skepticism that war was imminent.

Sixty-five percent of respondents said they thought it was "unlikely" that China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) will attack Taiwan within five years.

"Despite China's ongoing military intimidation, public expectations of a short-term invasion remain calm and rational," Lee wrote in a summary of the results published on INDSR's website.

The INDSR survey found that 33 percent of respondents identified "China's threat to Taiwan" as the country's top national security concern over the next five years, ahead of the "declining birth rate crisis" at 27 percent and "economic stagnation" at 18 percent.

Confidence in Taiwan's armed forces is declining, with only 14 percent of respondents expressing "strong confidence" -- down from 20 percent in September 2024 -- while those saying they had "no confidence" rose from 25 to 30 percent.

Lee explained that "recent espionage cases within the military may have heightened concerns over security management."

According to the report, 36 percent of respondents believe U.S.-Taiwan relations will worsen under U.S. President Donald Trump's leadership, up 12 percentage points since January 2025.

Lee attributed this shift to "uncertainties in Trump's Taiwan policy," even as Washington continues to send "pro-Taiwan signals."

Nevertheless, public support for U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation remains steady, with 59 percent agreeing that Taiwan should continue purchasing arms and military equipment from the U.S.

Public confidence in Washington's security commitment, however, is weakening, with only 14 percent believing the U.S. would "definitely intervene militarily" -- down from 19 percent in March 2024.

Forty-seven percent also said they believe the U.S. is "unlikely to intervene."

The survey found that 49 percent of respondents favor using "special budgets" to raise defense spending, compared to 42 percent who support "tax hikes" and 31 percent who favor "resource reallocation."

Lee wrote that the preference for special budgets reflected the public's desire for methods "that do not impact other public expenditures."

The findings were based on a public opinion survey for INDSR conducted by National Chengchi University's (NCCU) Election Study Center from March 4 to 9.

The survey gathered 1,285 valid responses through randomized telephone interviews with residents aged 18 and over, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.73 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.