Trump's first 100 days mark stronger U.S. role in Indo-Pacific security: Scholars

Taipei, April 30 (CNA) A day after U.S. President Donald Trump marked his first 100 days in office on Tuesday, Taiwanese scholars said the United States is taking on a greater role in safeguarding security in the Indo-Pacific region, including Taiwan, as part of efforts to contain China's expansion into the Pacific Ocean.

While Trump touted his 100-day achievements at a rally in Michigan on Tuesday (local time), international relations and defense experts gathered in Taipei for a seminar organized by National Chengchi University's Institute of International Relations (IIR) to discuss changes in U.S. security policy in the region since Trump was sworn in for a second term on Jan. 20.

From visits to missiles

In late March, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth visited the Indo-Pacific, including the Philippines and Japan, in a move intended to demonstrate Washington's desire to "strengthen security cooperation with regional allies," IIR Deputy Director Titus Chen (陳至潔) said.

"He [Hegseth] openly said it [referring to the trip] was meant to reaffirm efforts to counter China's expansion," Chen noted, adding that the defense chief highlighted the strategy of "peace through strength" during a speech in Hawaii.

Amid such developments, the ongoing Balikatan joint military exercises between the U.S. and the Philippines featured the first-time deployment of U.S.-manufactured NEMESIS anti-ship missiles, with a range of 185 kilometers, in Batanes -- the northernmost province in the Philippines -- Chen said.

Batanes' northernmost island, Y'Ami Island, lies just 140 kilometers from Taiwan's Pingtung County, and once the NEMESIS system is deployed there, "it can fully block access to the Bashi Channel if necessary," said Chen, who recently visited the Philippines.

The Bashi Channel, located between Taiwan and the Philippines, is a strategic waterway vital for both commercial shipping and military operations, connecting the South China Sea with the western Pacific Ocean. It is considered one of the primary routes for Chinese warships to enter the Pacific Ocean.

Prompting policy shifts

Chen said the U.S. commitment to collective defense in the Indo-Pacific, backed by tangible actions, has prompted the Philippines to make notable adjustments to its policy toward Taiwan.

He cited remarks made by Philippine Armed Forces Chief Romeo Brawner in early April, in which Brawner said that if Taiwan were invaded, the Philippines would inevitably be drawn in -- marking the first time the country's top military official has publicly acknowledged Taiwan's strategic and defense significance to the Philippines.

"A Philippine Navy spokesperson recently even revealed that the country's military is in talks with Taiwan on international cooperation, which is just one step away from holding joint exercises," Chen said.

He added that Trump's Indo-Pacific alliance strategy has created a "more favorable environment" for Taiwan, with both the Philippines and Japan deepening and increasing the frequency of defense and security exchanges with Taiwan.

Asked by CNA why the U.S. is encouraging the Philippines to support Taiwan's defense, Chen said Trump repeatedly emphasized during his campaign that the U.S. military had not done enough to counter China's rise -- particularly in terms of containing Beijing within the first island chain, a strategic line that includes Taiwan and stretches across the western Pacific Ocean.

"Trump sees China as the U.S. primary strategic challenge and believes Europe is no longer as important," Chen said.

"He believes affairs in Europe should be handled by Europeans themselves, and that the U.S. should quickly reduce its protection for Europe and shift those resources to the Indo-Pacific to counter China's rise," Chen added.

Key to blocking China

Ma Cheng-kun (馬振坤), a professor at National Defense University's Graduate Institute of China Military Affairs Studies, said that Trump's actions in the Indo-Pacific are largely consistent with those of previous administrations.

Ma said that U.S. military assistance to any country or region is always contingent on whether it serves the "overall strategic interests of the U.S."

Since 1949, when the Republic of China (Taiwan official name) government retreated to Taiwan, the existence of Taiwan has been a "key factor" helping the U.S. prevent China from becoming a true Pacific power.

"If China were to gain control of Taiwan, it would become a true Pacific coastal state, fundamentally changing the dynamics and structure of U.S.-China strategic competition," Ma said.

"The development of the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) navy and air force long-range power projection capabilities would be accelerated by at least a generation," he added.

Taiwan holds a special strategic position among the countries along the first island chain, flanked by the Miyako Strait to the north, near Japan, and the Bashi Channel to the south, near the Philippines.

The waterways along the first island chain that are deep enough for the passage of modern PLA submarines -- including nuclear-powered ones -- into the Pacific are limited to the Bashi Channel and the Miyako Strait, Ma said, making both waterways, and Taiwan itself, strategically vital.

"The geostrategic value [of Taiwan] is unchanging -- unless the U.S. abandons its current global strategic posture," Ma said.

Adapt to changing U.S. stance on Ukraine?

Meanwhile, speaking during a separate seminar on Trump's first 100 days in office in Taipei on Wednesday, Lin Cheng-yi (林正義), a research fellow at Academia Sinica's Institute of European and American Studies, said Taiwan has been one of the staunchest supporters of Ukraine since the Russian invasion in February 2022.

Taiwan followed former U.S. President Joe Biden's administration with regards to supporting Ukraine, Lin said in a seminar organized by Taipei-based think tank Institute for National Policy Research.

However, given the U.S. President Donald Trump's changing attitude toward Ukraine, Lin said Taiwan's government may need to change its stance on the issue.

The sooner the war in Europe ends, the better for Taiwan, Lin said, adding that the weaker country has to make sacrifices and that it will be extremely difficult for Ukraine to end the war with dignity.

Ukraine may need to sacrifice its critical mineral resources in exchange for its existence, he added.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago, the U.S. had been the latter's biggest supporter, but in recent weeks the dynamic seems to have shifted, as Trump has been excluding Ukraine from peace talks with Russia, which has drawn criticism from Kyiv and European countries.

Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) said in February when marking the third anniversary of the Russian invasion that it would continue to offer humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.

As of February, Taiwan had allocated more than US$130 million for Ukraine infrastructure projects such as bridges, hospitals, churches, and schools, while private donations for the war-torn country have exceeded US$32 million, according to MOFA.