China retains global goals despite domestic challenges: Analysts

Taipei, Sept. 12 (CNA) China will continue to work toward its "rejuvenation," striving for global dominance despite facing domestic challenges, analysts told a security dialogue held in Taipei on Thursday.

"China is already one of the most influential regional, global players, and, looking into the future... we will see a China that will continue to seek to increase its influence," said Bonny Lin, a China affairs researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

As Beijing views the United States as trying to "stir up a conflict in its periphery" and the growing instability around the world, it will prepare itself to "do more" to "protect" and "advance" its interests, Lin said at the Taipei Security Dialogue.

In the next 10 to 15 years, she continued, Beijing will become "less tolerant" while "more assertive" and "more willing" to use military and other means to protect its national interests, particularly its territorial and sovereignty claims.

Taking note of China's internal problems, including an economic downturn and high unemployment rate, Lin argued that China "will still want to achieve its rejuvenation goals" and be able to "lead internationally."

Speaking in a similar vein, Vina Nadjibulla, vice president of the research and strategy arm of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, observed that Beijing's one key response to what it sees as the U.S. seeking to "suppress" and "contain" it was to build its own international groupings.

She rebutted comments on China becoming increasingly isolated, arguing that the country had been trying to "fortify itself from the West" and "fully integrate itself" with the non-Western world.

She was referring to intergovernmental organizations such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, where China plays a major role, describing them as "grievance platforms" for countries dissatisfied with a world order dominated by Western leaders.

Another anti-containment approach is to reduce its economic reliance on the West, Nadjibulla said, noting that Beijing had been actively learning from Russia's experience in mitigating the impacts of economic sanctions imposed by Western countries and rerouting supply chains.

Meanwhile, some analysts also pointed out Taiwan's strategic importance lay in its advanced semiconductor manufacturing capabilities.

Ivan Kanapathy, a nonresident expert at the Washington-based think tank CSIS, noted that Taiwan currently produced the world's most advanced semiconductors, adding its manufacturing capacity in the sector remained dominant.

"That's why Taiwan matters in this global security context," said Kanapathy, who served on the White House's National Security Council staff as director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia from March 2018 to July 2021.

While China is trying to challenge Taiwan's status as a chip manufacturing powerhouse, it is still three to five years behind, he added.

However, Kwon Seok-joon, a chemical engineering professor from Sungkyunkwan University in South Korea, noted that while Taiwan boasted its advanced semiconductor technology, it was not without weaknesses.

Kwon said while the semiconductor industry was Taiwan's "silicon shield," its dominance had been seen by some quarters in the U.S. politics as "a monopoly."

He added that the U.S. government would try to "alleviate this kind of monopoly on chipmaking in Taiwan" by rolling out measures to protect its own semiconductor industry.

In addition, Taiwan lacks sufficient renewable and carbon-free energy sources that semiconductor and other high-tech companies are increasingly in need of, the professor said, noting that the country had placed much emphasis on fossil fuel-based power.

Kwon added that Taiwan was also vulnerable to natural disasters and geopolitical threats from China.

Thursday's event was co-hosted by the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a Taiwanese government-funded think tank, and the Mainland Affairs Council, the top government agency handling cross-Taiwan Strait affairs.