ANALYSIS/Xi unlikely to invade Taiwan during Trump's 2nd term: Scholars

Taipei, Dec. 6 (CNA) With Donald Trump set to begin his second term as president of the United States early next year, Taiwanese and foreign scholars said on Friday that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is unlikely to attempt an invasion of Taiwan during Trump's time in office.

Xi's ambition to establish China as a "true world power" has intensified over the years, said Akio Takahara, a distinguished visiting professor at Tokyo Woman's Christian University and an expert in contemporary Chinese politics.

But he predicted Xi will not initiate an invasion of Taiwan "in the near future" as the Chinese leader's top priority is not unification, but to maintain the regime and his power.

Takahara was speaking at a symposium in Taipei held by National Chengchi University's Institute of International Relations to discuss the potential impact of Trump's return to the White House in January 2025 on Indo-Pacific countries, including Taiwan.

In his keynote speech, Takahara highlighted Xi's shift from telling former U.S. President Barack Obama that the Pacific Ocean is big enough for both the U.S. and China, to stating to the incumbent President Joe Biden last year that the world can accommodate the two countries.

Viewing the Pacific Ocean from China's perspective, Xi sees unifying Taiwan as essential, not only as a "very nationalistic target" but also as a way to break through the first island chain and secure an advantage in the strategic competition with the U.S., the Japanese scholar said.

"But when Xi Jinping finds that it's better to attack Taiwan to maintain power, then I think he will attack -- but that's not tomorrow, that's not next year, that's not 2027," he said, adding that Xi is likely to continue his current strategy of "winning without fighting," which relies on economic and cultural infiltration in Taiwan.

In a post-symposium interview, Takahara told CNA that if Trump does not change the U.S.-Taiwan policy "in a big way," then most likely, Xi will refrain from using military force against Taiwan during Trump's second term.

"Attacking Taiwan is too risky," he said, explaining that such an action would severely damage China's economy and "certainly undermine the source of his (Xi's) legitimacy to rule."

Takahara added that in the event of a "no-reason invasion" by China, the U.S. is likely to intervene with support from Japan, provided its current Taiwan policy remains unchanged.

But he said if Taiwan were to suddenly declare independence "without the understanding of Washington or Tokyo," the U.S. and Japan would most likely refrain from intervening in a Chinese invasion triggered under such circumstances.

Echoing Takahara, Dennis Weng (翁履中), an associate professor at Sam Houston State University's Department of Political Science, predicted that under the Trump administration, there will be no war or military conflicts between Taiwan and China as Trump strongly opposes military confrontation.

"He will utilize all kinds of bargaining or all kinds of negotiation [to prevent a Taiwan-China war from happening]," Weng said.

Although China is unlikely to initiate an invasion of Taiwan in the next four years, Weng said that Beijing will utilize "some other tools in their toolbox," such as cutting off trade deals with Taiwan and further isolating the Republic of China (Taiwan's official name) by "taking away" its remaining diplomatic allies.

The Taiwanese scholar also presented findings from his research based on interviews with around 150 "elites" -- policy experts, government officials, and military leaders -- in Beijing, Taipei, and Washington, D.C., conducted between 2022 and 2024.

Of the 50 Chinese "elites," only five of them (10 percent) believed that the U.S. would send troops to assist Taiwan in the event of a war between Taiwan and China, while nine out of 44 Taiwanese "elites" (20.5 percent) and seven out of 49 U.S. "elites" (14.3 percent) shared the same belief, according to Weng.

This indicated that there was a "gap" between the views of U.S. elites and the opinions of the public, Weng said, citing a 2024 survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs which found that 36 percent of Americans support sending troops to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

Under Trump's second term, U.S.-Taiwan policy will likely be "elite-driven" due to his character and leadership style, Weng said, suggesting that Taiwanese authorities should establish new communication channels with elites in Washington to garner greater support from them.