ANALYSIS/China's drills aimed at testing the U.S.' ability to handle double crises: Analyst

Taipei, Oct. 14 (CNA) China's timing of the Joint Sword 2024-B military drills was meant to test the United States' ability to simultaneously respond to crises in the Taiwan Strait and on the Korean Peninsula, an analyst said Monday.

Tensions are high on the Korean Peninsula after North Korea earlier this month discovered drones carrying propaganda leaflets that Pyongyang alleges were sent from the south, Lin Ying-yu (林穎佑), an assistant professor at Tamkang University Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, told CNA when asked to comment on the significance of China's drills.

China staged the drills involving the People's Liberation Army (PLA), Navy, Air Force and Rocket Force.

According to the PLA's Eastern Theater Command, the drills around Taiwan are a "stern warning" to Taiwan independence "separatist" forces.

Although South Korea's Ministry of National Defense on Oct. 11 denied flying drones into North Korea, North Korea's defense ministry on Sunday said it had ordered artillery units along the borders to be fully ready to open fire, Lin said.

China's decision to launch Joint Sword 2024-B at this juncture was meant to test the U.S.' ability to deal with two potential crises at once, he said.

Referring to China's deployment of its Liaoning aircraft carrier to the western Pacific one day before the drills, Lin said this maneuver mirrored the Joint Sword drills carried out in April 2023 by the PLA in response to a meeting between then-President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and then-U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California.

During the 2023 drills, China also deployed its Shandong aircraft carrier to the West Pacific, Lin said.

The purpose of sailing the Liaoning to the western Pacific was to test it following major repairs and modifications as well as conduct drills aimed at speeding up the rotation of fighter jets, a known weakness of the carrier, Lin said.

Referencing the map released by China detailing the locations of the Joint Sword 2024-B drills, Lin also noted PLA forces were positioned closer to Taiwan proper than they were during the Joint Sword 2024-A drills in May.

While Taiwan's authorities had preempted the Joint Sword 2024-B and informed the public of the likelihood of the drills before the National Day on Oct. 10, Lin said the government should be alert to Chinese attempts at cyber warfare alongside the military drills to paralyze Taiwan's digital infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), a research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a Ministry of National Defense think tank, said China's drills were "70 percent political, 30 percent military" because "no matter what Taiwan does or says, China will not be satisfied."

Regardless, a noteworthy segment of Joint Sword 2024-B was the blockade of critical harbors to deny access to Taiwan's allies taking the maritime route to its assistance, Su said.

In addition, the China Coast Guard is expected to have a larger role and is likely to deploy more ships than in previous drills, he added.

Taiwan should rapidly increase its stockpiles of wartime necessities and the number of key infrastructure, and make this infrastructure more resilient against attacks and more easily repaired in response to this situation, Su said.