Tabletop exercise held on escalated Chinese military coercion

Taipei, June 10 (CNA) Three Taiwanese NGOs in a tabletop exercise on Tuesday simulated major escalations in Chinese military activities around Taiwan in 2030, including Chinese navy ships intruding into Taiwan's territorial waters.

The two-day exercise, focusing mainly on China's "gray zone" activities, coercive actions that stop short of open conflict, was jointly hosted by the Taipei School of Economics and Political Science Foundation, an educational foundation; the Taipei-based think tank Center for Peace and Security; and the Council on Strategic and Wargaming Studies (CSWS), a research institute.

The event was attended by several former defense officials, including former Chief of the General Staff Lee Hsi-min (李喜明), retired United States' Navy Admiral Michael Mullen, former United States Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair, former Japanese Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff Shigeru Iwasaki, and former Chief of Staff of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Tomohisa Takei.

The participants were divided into a guidance team, a control team, and four teams representing Taiwan, China, the United States and Japan.

CSWS Chairman Alexander Huang (黃介正) said at the opening of the event that the scenarios were set in 2030, so the wargames are conducted in the context that Taiwan has received all the weapons it has so far purchased from the United States.

To ensure participants can speak freely and candidly, the organizers asked journalists not to attribute any remarks made during the discussions.

In "Move 1" of the exercise, China crosses the outer boundary of Taiwan's territorial waters, which extends 12 nautical miles from its shore. This happens against the backdrop of frequent bilateral Cabinet-level visits between Taiwan and the U.S., despite protests from Beijing, and a slowing economy that is prompting scattered social unrest across China.

Among the actions taken by Team Taiwan are deploying Coast Guard and Navy vessels to shadow the intruders and deploying submarines to "ambush zones" in waters northeast and southwest of Taiwan's main island.

Notably, Taiwan decides not to open fire at the intruders based on the principle that it "does not fire the first shot, thus starting a war."

Team U.S. replied that it would step up intelligence sharing with Taiwan and increase deterrence by moving forces from Guam or Sasebo, Japan into the region, but that it would not put troops on the ground in Taiwan yet.

It said that at some point Taiwan may have to open fire to expel the Chinese intruders, but Taiwan would have to make sure to give the Chinese advance warning before doing so.

Even then, the U.S. side stressed that Taiwan should prevent the situation from escalating into an all-out war.

In response, a key member of the Control Team with a military background said Team Taiwan might have overreacted.

For example, he questioned the need to deploy submarines in response to the level of threat, asking how then would Taiwan respond if China decided to turn a military exercise on the scale as the one seen in August 2022 following then U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan into a surprise attack.

"Faced with coercive threats, how do we ensure an effective response to existential threats at the same time?

Is there a better way to respond to gray zone tactics, to simultaneously uphold our sovereignty and conserve our forces, so that we won't be defeated by the first wave of attack?" he asked.

That, he added, is a question Taiwan's government and military need to consider.