Tokyo should work to prevent U.S.-China war over Taiwan: Ex-official

Taipei, March 5 (CNA) Japanese politicians should work to prevent a conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan, former Japanese Assistant Chief Cabinet Secretary Kyoji Yanagisawa said in Taipei on Tuesday.

Speaking at the Asia-Pacific Forward Forum, organized by the Cross-Straits Common Market Foundation, Yanagisawa said former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's belief that "a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency" differed from his own.

Similarly, Yanagisawa said he was opposed to remarks by former Japanese Prime Minister Tarō Asō when he visited Taiwan in August 2023 calling for Taiwan, Japan, and the U.S. to be "prepared for war" as a means of deterring China.

A war between Taiwan and China would spark a U.S. intervention, Yanagisawa said, adding that Washington would likely ask for the use of Japanese military bases as well as direct assistance.

If Japan agrees, its facilities, particularly military bases in Okinawa, risk being bombarded by Chinese missiles, Yanagisawa said.

However, if Japan refuses, it would mean the dissolution of the U.S.-Japan security alliance, Yanagisawa added.

No matter which scenario plays out, it would be a "nightmare" for Japan, which should do its utmost to prevent itself from getting into that position, Yanagisawa said.

If Japan becomes engaged in a war with China, thousands of lives along with large numbers of Japanese and U.S. ships and planes, will be lost, Yanagisawa said.

In Japan's National Security Strategy established on Dec. 16, 2022, there was language that called for Japan to adopt a confrontational stance against totalitarian regimes.

China was identified as an autocratic regime that, like Russia, could disrupt the international order, and there was language that called for Japan to bolster its defense capabilities in a potential conflict with China, including sourcing long-range missiles that could strike Chinese mainland, he said.

According to Yanagisawa, such calls stemmed from a desire to maintain a free international order, which he attributed to Japan's weak economic performance.

However, these calls are "ill-conceived," as Japan's economy has little to do with totalitarian regimes, Yanagisawa said, questioning the need for Japan to confront totalitarian regimes or decouple from China, he said.

Yanagisawa said Japan has expressed its desire to purchase 400 cruise missiles and longer-range land-based anit-ship missiles from the U.S., but these are unlikely to act as a deterrence, as China may have amassed up to 10,000 missiles by the time the weapons are received.

Japan often only talks about deterrence, which would result in an arms race, but he believes that it should also talk about "reassurance," namely reassuring the other side that its core interests will not be compromised, which he said would prevent it from starting a war, Yanagisawa said.

What Taiwan, China, and the U.S. want is to maintain the "status quo" and prevent war, even though they have different narratives, and all three sides should engage in dialogue even in the absence of rapport, he said.

The majority of Japanese youth are in favor of strengthening Japan's defense capabilities and dislike China somewhat, but people born after 1945, including himself, have never experienced war.

In light of this generation gap, the young people in Taiwan and Japan, who still have decades to live in this world, should be informed about war, which is a cause he will continue to work toward, he said.

Asked if Japan would come to Taiwan's aid in the event of a Chinese invasion, Yanagisawa said the mainstream opinion is in favor of Japan defending Taiwan, but he questioned whether that would necessarily translate to Tokyo ultimately deciding to do so.

Faced with the threat of war, the best policy is to not count on other countries' help, and Taiwan should not base its expectations on the prevailing sentiment among Japanese people, he said.