Third-party supporters lean anti-unification, non-populist: Scholar

Taipei, Jan. 24 (CNA) The emergence of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) as a potentially influential third party in Taiwan's Jan. 13 presidential and legislative elections was widely attributed to support from young voters without strong party affiliations.

But Huang Kai-ping (黃凱苹), a political science professor at National Taiwan University, sought to delve deeper into the core beliefs of TPP backers, and she argued at a recent forum that they occupy a relative middle ground on relations with China and lean away from populist beliefs.

Speaking at the Democratic Resilience Forum in Taipei on Jan. 20, Huang said the rise of a third party in a system that has long favored two major parties was an interesting phenomenon, and that the TPP's supporters had different outlooks than those of Taiwan's two major parties.

Huang based her view on data from a controlled online survey done on Dec. 17 (prior to the election) in which citizens were asked who they would support in the election and their views on relations with China and other issues.

Based on the results, Huang said TPP supporters were just as mainstream in their support for the status quo on China as were those of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and main opposition Kuomintang (KMT).

Overall, 91.1 percent of the survey's 974 respondents supported the status quo, compared to 92.1 percent of respondents backing the TPP's presidential candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲).

Some 96.8 percent of respondents backing KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) and 84.8 percent of respondents supporting eventual President-elect Lai Ching-te (賴清德) of the DPP also supported the status quo.

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The difference in views was more evident in the breakdown of four different inclinations of status quo endorsers -- future unification with China, anti-independence, anti-unification, or formal independence from China in the future.

Just over half (50.2 percent) of Ko's supporters leaned toward an anti-unification status quo while 27.1 percent favored independence in the future.

In contrast, Lai's supporters were more inclined to want independence in the future (43 percent), though a substantial number (34.8 percent) also supported an anti-unification status quo.

The majority of Hou's backers were almost evenly split in the middle of the spectrum, with 33.9 percent for an anti-independence status quo and 32.2 percent favoring an anti-unification status quo. Another 17.7 percent leaned toward future unification.

In terms of exchanges with Beijing, Huang said Ko's supporters were more closely aligned with Hou's backers in favoring both economic and political interactions with China, while Lai voters marginally favored economic engagement but opposed political interaction.

Huang concluded that Ko's supporters "favored a middle-ground approach to cross-Taiwan Strait relations, believing that showing goodwill could lower the temperature and avoid harsher measures like trade restrictions or military escalation."

A main criticism of the TPP is that it is a populist party without clear positions that successfully used social media to build a following.

Huang did not comment on whether Ko or the party was "populist," but she disagreed that its supporters should be portrayed that way.

Populism is defined as being anti-institutional and anti-elite, but in Taiwan, voters tend to all be anti-elite and anti-establishment, regardless of political affiliation, according to Huang based on her survey.

Instead of being populist, it would be more accurate to say the Taiwanese electorate in general supports democracy and checks and balances, Huang said.

They also all overwhelmingly disagree with the statements that a leader can have unlimited power to act on behalf of the people and that a government enjoying the support of the people should be able to do whatever it wants, Huang said.

The government that Taiwanese voters elected on Jan. 13 is somewhat reflective of that.

In the presidential race, none of the three candidates got an absolute majority of the vote. Lai won with 40.05 percent of the vote, followed by Hou with 33.5 percent and Ko with 26.5 percent.

In the 113-seat Legislative Yuan, the TPP won eight at-large seats, giving it a pivotal role after neither the DPP, with 51 seats, nor the KMT, with 52 seats, won a 57-seat absolute majority.