Taiwan retains leverage due to U.S. stance on China: Expert

Paris, March 4 (CNA) A French researcher on Monday said that the United States is taking a confrontational stance against China, which will maintain Taiwan's leverage.

Mathieu Duchâtel, director of the Asia Program at the Paris-based think tank Institut Montaigne, told CNA that while U.S. President Donald Trump occasionally discusses trade with China or regional spheres of influence, current economic security measures emphasize an oppositional stance.

For example, the America First Investment Policy signed in February requests the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to limit China's investment in strategic fields, Duchâtel said.

He added that the U.S. government also shows hostility against China in the semiconductor field.

While Taiwan's "democratic value" is insignificant to Trump's "America first" pragmatism, it is still important to the global society, Duchâtel said.

However, Taiwan still holds bargaining power with the U.S.

Duchâtel said that "Taiwan has cards to deal" when it comes to semiconductors, as the U.S. needs more high-end chips.

A second bargaining chip is Taiwan's role in the competition between the U.S. and China, as current signs indicate that the competition will continue and constitute a main stem of U.S. foreign policy, Duchâtel said.

Taiwan can play a part in defense collaborations against the People's Liberation Army of China, with interests aligned with the U.S., he said.

"Beijing is avoiding heating up while showing that they have new options to respond, such as strategic export restrictions, to convey that they are preparing for conflict" in the face of tough U.S. trade and tariff measures, Duchâtel said.

Duchâtel said he believed the U.S. and China were willing to negotiate on economic issues, adding that the current question was whether third countries on the side of the U.S. -- such as Canada and Australia -- would join in the trade war against China.

"It seems that Mexico is ready to do this," he said. "This will cause some problems for China."

Taiwan, however, will still be affected by a trade war, Duchâtel said.

Although Taiwanese companies' monopoly on cutting-edge chips is unlikely to be threatened by a trade war, its market share for ordinary chips may be impacted, Duchâtel said.

However, Taiwan's government is aligning its geoeconomics strategy with the U.S. and diversifying collaborative partners, he added.

Duchâtel said the most influential discourse on the debate for U.S. policies on Taiwan is the "Strategy of Denial" proposed by Elbridge Colby, the undersecretary of defense for policy of the Trump administration.

Colby's strategy aims to deter China before any conflicts are sparked and deny it victory in Taiwan.

Regarding concerns that the U.S. seems to be siding with Russia and cutting away from Europe, which may signal a green light for China to invade Taiwan, Duchâtel said it is certainly the worst risk.

However, he questioned whether it was beneficial for the U.S. to cut ties with Europe. "Could the U.S. just be requesting that Europe share safety responsibilities to concentrate its energy on China?" he said.

He added that China could not jump to the conclusion that it is safe to invade Taiwan.

The circumstances in which the Russo-Ukrainian War ends will be a revelation to Taiwan on whether the U.S. will abandon its allies.

Duchâtel said that building up Taiwan's military power will also be a key bargaining chip in negotiations between the Taiwanese and U.S. governments.

He suggests that Taiwan should push for collaboration talks with the U.S. on defense and technology, two fields that will inevitably have a decisive influence on Taiwan.