Taiwan forecast to post over US$100 billion in quarterly exports in 2024

Taipei, June 8 (CNA) On the back of the rising popularity of artificial intelligence applications on the global market, Taiwan is forecast to report more than US$100 billion per quarter in exports in 2024, according to the Ministry of Finance (MOF).

During the April-May period, Taiwan's outbound sales totaled about US$74.84 billion after US$110.33 billion was recorded in the first quarter.

Beatrice Tsai (蔡美娜), director-general of the MOF's Department of Statistics, said on Friday that it is expected Taiwan will report US$37.5 billion to US$38.5 billion in exports in June, up 16-19 percent from a year earlier, marking the eighth consecutive monthly year-on-year increase.

In addition to the global AI frenzy, Tsai said, a relatively low comparison base over the same period of last year also contributed to the double digit pace of growth in June.

As the local tech sector continues to ride the wave of global AI development, Tsai said, exports in the second quarter are forecast to top the US$100 billion mark and more than US$100 billion in outbound sales is also anticipated in the following quarters.

The country's outbound sales for the first half of this year are expected to grow 10-11 percent from a year earlier and a similar uptrend is forecast to continue in the second half of this year, Tsai said.

Citing a forecast from by the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS), Tsai said AI development is expected to extend to edge computing devices such as smartphones and notebook computers from cloud-based applications and Taiwanese semiconductor suppliers have the large production capacity needed to meet AI demand.

That is why the DGBAS has raised Taiwan's export growth forecast by 3.9 percentage points to 10.1 percent, indicating outbound sales will top US$100 billion every quarter this year, Tsai added.

On Friday, the MOF reported Taiwan's exports hit US$37.36 billion in May, up 3.5 percent from a year earlier and the seventh straight monthly year-on-year growth, while imports hit US$31.31 billion, up 0.6 percent from a year earlier.

In the first five months of this year, the country's exports rose 9.1 percent from a year earlier to US$185.14 billion, the second highest level for the five-month period, while imports hit US$153.69 billion, up 3.2 percent year-on-year.

Exports posted by the local information and communications/video and audio industry, a major beneficiary of AI development, totaled US$51.73 billion, a new high for the period, soaring 107.8 percent from a year earlier, MOF data showed.

Citing the MOF data, Tsai said the United States served as the major buyer of Taiwan-made products in the industry, with the total exports to Washington in the five month period hitting a new high of US$43.07 billion.

According to Tsai, Taiwan's exports to the U.S. market grew 10 months in a row, reaching US$8.29 billion in May, with the growth largely reflecting business opportunities created by AI development.

In addition to information and communications gadgets, Tsai said, solid demand for AI gadgets also gave a boost to exports from Taiwan's electronic components industry, which includes semiconductor makers, to the U.S. market.

In May, Taiwan's exports to the ASEAN bloc totaled US$6.47 billion, up 6.4 percent from a year earlier, marking the ninth consecutive monthly year-on-year increase, with exports from the local information and communications/video and audio industry surging 77.6 percent from a year earlier.

The strong exports to ASEAN countries resulted from AI enthusiasm, while the restructuring of the global supply chain also boosted outbound sales to the bloc, Tsai said.

In the first five months of this year, Taiwan's exports to the ASEAN bloc totaled US$35.29 billion, the highest level for the period, Tsai added.

During the five month period, the U.S. accounted for 23.3 percent of Taiwan's total exports, the highest in 24 years, while the ASEAN bloc made up 19.1 percent of Taiwan's total outbound sales, the highest ever, Tsai said.

In May, Taiwan's exports to China and Hong Kong bucked the uptrend, falling 5.3 percent from a year earlier to US$12.06 billion after a decline in electronic components, although China and Hong Kong remained the largest buyer of Taiwan's goods, the MOF said.

The decline showed China's economic recovery remains fragile, while adjustments in the global supply chain and export controls imposed by the U.S. also impacted outbound sales of Chinese merchandise, Tsai added

In the first five months, Taiwan's exports to China and Hong Kong totaled US$57.37 billion, down 4.1 percent from a year earlier, and accounted for 31 percent of Taiwan's total outbound sales, the lowest ratio for the five month period in 22 years.