Taipei, June 30 (CNA) The Yuanta-Polaris Research Institute, one of Taiwan's leading economic think tanks, has raised its forecast for gross domestic product (DGP) growth in Taiwan for 2018 to over 2.5 percent.
In the wake of a strong showing in the first half of the year, Yuanta-Polaris has upgraded its GDP growth forecast from an earlier estimate of 2.40 percent in March to 2.55 percent.
In addition to solid global demand, Yuanta-Polaris said the strong growth of Taiwan's economy in the first half of this year also reflects a relatively low comparison base over the same period of last year.
While Yuanta-Polaris joined the growing list of research institutions to express optimism over Taiwan's economy, the think tank was not as upbeat as the government, which upgraded its growth forecast by 0.18 percent to 2.60 percent in late May, after the local economy grew 3.02 percent in the first quarter.
In addition, the 2.55 percent predicted by Yuanta-Polaris and 2.60 percent from the government, was still shy of global growth of 3.9 percent forecast by the International Monetary Fund, noted Yuanta-Polaris.
According to Yuanta-Polaris, Taiwan's economic growth momentum for the first quarter is expected to continue into the second quarter, with second quarter growth of 2.97 percent anticipated.
The think tank said the local economy is expected to grow 2.27 percent in the third quarter, and 2.01 percent in the fourth quarter.
Yuanta-Polaris President Liang Kuo-yuan (梁國源) said despite the recovery of the local economy, the pace of growth has failed to impress the public, who want the government to come up with comprehensive economic stimulus measures to speed up growth.
Liang said it is possible Taiwan will have lower GDP growth figures in 2019 without economic restructuring this year.
Yuanta-Polaris said it has also raised its forecast for Taiwan's consumer price index (CPI) growth from an estimated 1.30 percent increase for 2018 to 1.50 percent.
After rising 1.55 percent in the first quarter, Yuanta-Polaris said, Taiwan's CPI is expected to grow 1.69 percent in the second quarter, 1.71 percent in the third quarter and 1.07 percent in the fourth quarter.
However, Liang said escalating trade conflict between the United States and China, the top two economies in the world, are creating uncertainty over the global economy, with both sides continuing to exchanges threats.
Liang said if trade tensions continue and even evolve into a trade war, the impact on the global economy is expected to be felt in the fourth quarter of this year.
(By Pan Tzu-yu and Frances Huang)
Enditem/AW