Special defense budgets anticipate more U.S. arms sales: Experts

Taipei, Aug. 21 (CNA) The Cabinet's planned special defense budgets totaling NT$117.6 billion (US$3.85 billion) anticipate the Trump administration approving more arms sale packages to Taiwan next year as a workaround given a limited general budget increase, experts said Thursday.

The Cabinet earlier in the day approved the general budget proposal for Fiscal Year 2026, under which the national defense spending plan accounts for NT$949.5 billion, equivalent to 3.32 percent of Taiwan's GDP.

● Taiwan defense spending to reach 3.32% of GDP in 2026: Premier

The spending plan includes "to-be-earmarked" special budgets of NT$117.6 billion, which according to the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics official Hsu Yung-yi (許永議) comprises three special budgets.

According to Hsu, the amount includes a NT$7.6 billion budget proposed by the Coast Guard Administration, with a Homeland Security Resilience Special Budget and Foreign Military Sales Special Budget making up the rest.

However, Hsu declined to comment on the specifics of the special budgets, which are still being reviewed by the Cabinet.

Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), a research fellow at the government-run Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said the Ministry of National Defense's budget increase is limited by the general budget increase, and so to meet arms procurement needs it is only natural special budgets are planned.

The special budgets could fund the production of the seven planned indigenous defense submarines and the procurement of drones from the United States and local manufacturers, as well as locally developed unmanned surface vessels, Su said.

In addition, the special budgets are likely to also include funds to purchase E-2D airborne early warning aircraft and M109A7 self-propelled howitzers from the U.S. he added.

Su expressed hope that any forthcoming special defense budget will place an emphasis on purchasing locally developed weapons, just like the 2021-2026 Sea-Air Combat Power Improvement Plan, to drive local economic growth.

National Taiwan University associate professor of political science Chen Shih-min (陳世民) noted that the sales of M1A2T main battle tanks and HIMARS, which Taiwan recently received, were both approved during Trump's first term.

Although the Trump administration has not announced new foreign military sales to Taiwan, the Taiwanese government is confident that there will be more arms procurement packages and is preparing for them by planning the special defense budgets, Chen said.

With the 2027 "Davidson window" drawing near, there is a high probability that the U.S. will sell advanced weapons to Taiwan in 2026, Chen added.

Then commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Philip Davidson during congressional testimony in 2021 warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had instructed the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. Davidson's comments have since been echoed by many U.S. officials, including U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.