ANALYSIS / PLA exercises send messages to Taiwan, Japan, U.S.: Experts

Taipei, Dec. 29 (CNA) The military exercises launched Monday by China have many purposes, including cognitive warfare against Taiwan, an effort to counter United States-Japan military cooperation, and the showcasing of coordination with Russia, a scholar said Monday.

Lin Ying-yu (林穎佑), an associate professor in Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, said the drills were not solely a response to recently announced U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, but that other factors were also at play.

The drills were targeted in part at what China has described as Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's hardline statements on a "Taiwan contingency," as well as Japan's increasingly close military cooperation with the United States, Lin said.

In November, Takaichi said a Chinese attack on Taiwan would constitute a threat to Japan's survival and could warrant a military response from Tokyo, drawing an angry reaction from Beijing.

The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) on Monday launched a new series of exercises around Taiwan, code-named Justice Mission 2025, which it said were meant as a "stern warning to 'Taiwan Independence' separatist forces."

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Lin said the drills were a form of cognitive warfare, aimed at undermining Taiwanese morale by signaling to Taiwan that U.S. and Japanese support might not translate into real assistance.

Lin argued that China's decision to launch the Taiwan drills just before the New Year sent a strong "China-Russia joint action" signal, given that Russia recently announced it will hold a two-month live-fire military exercise in the Northern Territories starting Jan. 1, 2026.

The PLA's tactical logic, he said, was to leverage Russia's threat in the north to constrain Japan's Self-Defense Forces, preventing them from redeploying resources to Taiwan if tensions were to escalate in the Taiwan Strait.

Besides the pressure exerted by China and Russia, Lin said North Korea was also worth watching for any potential action, as this could be a way to constrain U.S. forces stationed in South Korea.

Lin said that if China, Russia, and North Korea were to act in coordination, it would align with a strategic concept the PLA has been developing in recent years, known as the "five-sea integration."

The concept envisions synchronized operations across the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, Yellow Sea, and Philippine Sea to challenge the defensive resilience of the First Island Chain, he said.

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Tony Hu (胡振東), a former Pentagon official, told CNA that China's drills were meant to intimidate Taiwan and influence elections by supporting politicians aligned with its interests.

He argued that China's ambition to absorb Taiwan has never changed and that only a strong defense could ensure peace.

The Chinese exercises launched Monday provided Taiwan's military with a rare opportunity to repeatedly test its operational plans, Hu said.

He generally agreed with Lin's view on Russia's role, saying that if a conflict were to break out in the Taiwan Strait, Russia was not likely to intervene directly but could constrain Japan's Self-Defense Forces in the north, preventing them from reinforcing the south.

Separately on Monday, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) released footage showing the military monitoring a Chinese J-16 fighter and the Chinese frigate Anyang, signaling that Taiwan's military was effectively tracking enemy movements.

Surveillance of the J-16 was carried out by an Air Force F-16V (Block 20) fighter using the Sniper Advanced Targeting Pod (AN/AAQ-33), according to the MND.

Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), a research fellow at the government-sponsored Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said the AN/AAQ-33 combines both search and targeting functions.

It can detect ground targets at about 87 kilometers using visible and infrared sensors, and air targets at up to 187 km, Su said, indicating that Chinese aircraft could potentially be tracked from Taiwan's airspace via the electro-optical system without triggering their radar warning receivers, enabling a "silent kill" capability.