ANALYSIS / Iran could cloud Trump-Xi talks but unlikely to spark Taiwan war: Scholars

Taipei, March 2 (CNA) Escalating conflict in the Middle East is unlikely to trigger an immediate cross-strait crisis or directly imperil Taiwan in U.S.-China dealings, but it could pose growing risks by straining U.S. resources and complicating the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, scholars said.

Invasion risk 'not that high'

Chieh Chung (揭仲), an adjunct associate research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said U.S. President Donald Trump was "clearly trying to replicate" the kind of short, high-intensity military operation against ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

This would allow Trump to "focus U.S. resources on the Indo-Pacific for long-term competition with China," Chieh told CNA in a phone interview on Monday.

However, Chieh said that if the fighting in the Middle East cannot be brought to a quick end, U.S. forces will likely have little choice but to continue relying on precision airstrikes, as deploying large numbers of ground troops appears unlikely.

He noted that the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command has long warned about shortages in its stockpile of precision-guided munitions, and said a prolonged campaign could soon begin to affect the U.S. military's own combat readiness, in turn "weakening its ability to deter China in the western Pacific."

Even so, Chieh said the risk of an immediate Chinese invasion was "not that high," citing Beijing's long-term strategic goals of "peaceful unification" and the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) still-limited ability to ensure a quick victory, particularly following the ouster of Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia (張又俠) and other senior PLA figures.

"After such a sweeping purge of the military leadership, I believe the Chinese military -- and [Chinese leader] Xi Jinping (習近平) himself -- should all be aware that this is not the right moment for large-scale external military action," Chieh said.

Impact on Trump-Xi meeting

Chang Wu-ueh (張五岳), a senior advisor at the Institute for National Policy Research, said recent U.S. moves against the Beijing-backed Venezuela and Iran suggest Washington remains primarily focused on strategic competition with China.

With time running short and both sides occupied with domestic issues, ahead of a scheduled Trump-Xi meeting from March 31 to April 2 in China, it is unlikely they will be able to reach major agreements on trade or Taiwan, he added.

With the Middle East crisis still unfolding, Chieh said that if the situation had by late March turned into a war of attrition -- suggesting U.S. forces could not be quickly pulled out of the region -- it would weaken Trump's psychological position ahead of negotiations with Xi.

He added that Washington's tools for pressuring Beijing had "shrunk substantially" after Trump's reciprocal tariffs were struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court.

With Trump appearing eager to return from Beijing with a "big deal" that could be partly delivered before the November midterm elections, Beijing's bargaining position would be markedly strengthened by the time of the meeting, Chieh noted.

Consequently, Trump might view certain Taiwan-related adjustments as "rhetorical" and open to negotiation, Chieh said.

He cited concerns that Trump could shift from saying Washington does not support Taiwan independence to explicitly opposing it, or place new limits on political and military exchanges with Taipei.

"Trump may think he has plenty of room for interpretation, but even changes in wording alone could be seen by Beijing as an important achievement," Chieh added.

Arms sales

Chieh noted that if Trump were to make certain commitments during his state visit to China, those pledges could "interfere with subsequent U.S. arms sales to Taiwan."

Such sales, he said, might not be canceled outright, but could face additional constraints, require more workarounds, or be delayed longer than expected in terms of public announcement.

He also warned that the weapons Taiwan hopes to buy could face longer delivery delays if the crisis in the Middle East persists.

Systems sought by Taiwan, including Patriot missile systems and the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS), could become harder to obtain if prolonged fighting depletes U.S. stockpiles and pushes Israel and other Middle Eastern countries to expand their air defense capabilities.

"NATO countries are already strengthening their own air defense systems, which means Taiwan may have to compete with many of Washington's close allies for limited production capacity," he added.