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'Routinized' China drills might delay combat response: Ex-U.S. official

12/10/2024 04:46 PM
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The Republic of China (Taiwan) navy monitors a Chinese ship in the distance. File photo courtesy of Ministry of Defense
The Republic of China (Taiwan) navy monitors a Chinese ship in the distance. File photo courtesy of Ministry of Defense

Washington, Dec. 9 (CNA) China's increasingly "routinized" drills could delay the response to actual military action by desensitizing Taiwan and its partners to People's Liberation Army (PLA) activity, a former U.S. State Department official said Monday.

Ex-Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia Heino Klinck was asked by CNA about China using recent U.S. stopovers by President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) to justify potential military exercises near Taiwan.

Klinck said that in addition to conveying its displeasure to Taiwan, the expanding scale, scope and regularity of China's exercises had "more nefarious implications."

"The more 'routinized' these drills become, the less attention they may draw, which could impact how indications and warning of actual imminent military action may be interpreted, thus reducing response times," he said.

Moreover, the drills provide opportunities for the PLA to rehearse actions that could ultimately be used in a real operation against Taiwan, Klinck added.

However, launching exercises in response to Lai's U.S. stopovers "may well be counterproductive diplomatically" for China.

"China's pretext for these provocative military moves ring hollow," Klinck said, adding that the international community would view any potential action as "coercive in nature."

Mark Montgomery, a retired U.S. rear admiral, expressed similar unease about the increasing sophistication of Chinese drills, which he said provided an "operational education" for the PLA.

"The greatest concern is the quality and depth of the PLA exercises this year -- they are larger, more complex and more pointed in their direct threat to Taiwan's security," Montgomery told CNA.

However, while China was "frustrated and angry" about Lai's trip, Montgomery said the PLA might have launched exercises this winter "no matter what."

A U.S. State Department spokesperson told CNA that Lai's "routine transit" should not be used as "a pretext for military pressure."

The spokesperson added that the U.S. is closely monitoring PLA activity near Taiwan and called on Beijing to "act with restraint."

On Monday, China designated seven areas east of Zhejiang and Fujian provinces as "temporary reserved areas" of airspace until Wednesday, typically indicating airspace reserved for specific military activities.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that a senior Taiwanese security official said China has deployed nearly 90 navy and coast guard ships near Taiwan, the southern Japanese islands, and the East and South China Seas, with naval vessels comprising two-thirds of the fleet.

This deployment exceeds the scale of the earlier Joint Sword drills, the official said.

In response to the PLA's actions, Taiwan's military launched war-preparedness drills on Monday (Taipei time) at key locations nationwide and is collaborating with the Coast Guard Administration on countermeasures.

(By Shih Shiou-chuan, Joseph Yeh, and Chao Yen-hsiang)

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