Kinmen capsizing unlikely to escalate into cross-strait conflict: Academics

Taipei, March 6 (CNA) China is unlikely to attack Taiwan proper over the capsizing of an unregistered speedboat that entered "restricted waters" around the Kinmen islands on Feb. 14 resulting in an incident that left two Chinese crew members dead, academics said Wednesday.

The scholars were speaking at a forum held by the Institute for National Policy Research in Taipei about the incident, China's annual plenary sessions of the National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, and the Super Tuesday U.S. presidential election primary.

Chang Wu-ueh (張五岳), an associate professor at Tamkang University Graduate Institute of China Studies, said since the incident occurred, Chinese state media have run only two articles about it, one published Feb. 19 in the People's Daily and another by Xinhua on March 1.

In addition, the highest-ranking Chinese official to have spoken publicly about the incident is Sung Tao (宋濤), head of the Taiwan Affairs Office, he noted.

This indicates that Beijing's perception of the incident differs greatly from those of angry Chinese netizens, Chang said.

Q&A/Taiwan and China's dispute over the waters around Kinmen

Feb. 14: 2 dead after Chinese speedboat capsizes in Kinmen waters

March 6: Taiwan-China negotiations on fatal Kinmen boat collision collapse

Fan Shih-ping (范世平), a professor of political science at National Taiwan Normal University, said the relatively muted response from Beijing over the incident could be due to the Chinese State Council's own campaign to crack down on unregistered, unnamed and unlicensed vessels operating in waters off China.

China may want to maintain a low profile because it knows it is in the wrong on the Kinmen incident, Fan added.

Furthermore, official and non-official interactions between Kinmen and Xiamen are mostly amicable, and with Beijing hoping to push through the "new four links" between Kinmen and Xiamen -- natural gas, electricity, water, and the building of a Kinmen-Xiamen Bridge -- it is hard to imagine the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will allow tensions to escalate over the Kinmen incident, Chang said.

Lin Ying-yu (林穎佑), an assistant professor at Tamkang University's Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, described recent incidents, including China sending more weather balloons across Taiwan than in previous years, unilaterally adjusting the southbound M503 flight path and the Kinmen incident as premeditated "soap opera" rather than standalone incidents.

The first two events were meant to persuade Taiwanese that Taiwan's government does not have control over its airspace and is unable to counter any moves made by China, Lin said.

Meanwhile, China's response to the Kinmen incident is intended to divide and conquer, by inconveniencing residents on the outlying islands and shaking their faith in the the government of Taiwan, he said, citing the boarding of the Sunrise cruise ship by the Chinese coast guard on Feb. 19.

However, unlike its skirmishes with the Philippine coast guard in the South China Sea, China will absolutely not allow the Kinmen incident to evolve into an international incident, as that would give the impression Taiwan does not belong to China, Lin said.

Feb. 18: China using 'gray zone' tactics after deadly Kinmen boat case: Experts

Feb. 19: Taiwan vessel returns to Kinmen after being boarded by Chinese coast guard

Tung Li-wen (董立文), CEO of the Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies, said any assertions that China could attack Taiwan proper over the incident are clearly fearmongering as the Chinese defense ministry has yet to issue any statement on the incident or dispatch vessels to waters off Kinmen and the Lienchiang islands.

Chang Kuo-cheng (張國城), associate dean at Taipei Medical University's Center for General Education, echoed Lin's view that China has sought to use divide-and-conquer tactics in the aftermath of the Kinmen incident by trying to shape public opinion in Taiwan.

The best result Chinese authorities can hope for is to discourage Taiwan's coast guard by making it difficult for coast guard officials to enforce the law, Chang said.

Turning to China's ongoing "two sessions," Chang said that China has never made major Taiwan policy related announcements at the gatherings, and this year is expected to be no different.

He predicted that any changes Beijing deems necessary to its Taiwan policy will be made between the conclusion of the two sessions and May 20 when President-elect Lai Ching-te (賴清德) takes office.

Meanwhile, it is likely that efforts will be made to arrange contacts between Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) and U.S. President Joe Biden to maintain China-U.S. relations before May 20, which means although tensions are likely to be high in the Taiwan Strait, they will remain "manageable," Chang said.

Echoing Chang, Tung said there is no reason to expect there will be any groundbreaking changes in China's Taiwan policy.

Beijing has already set the tone for its Taiwan policy over the next four years, and will not approve of anything Lai has to say about cross-strait relations in his inaugural speech, Tung observed.

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