ELECTION 2024/Scholars predict rising China pressure, political gridlock after Taiwan election

Taipei, Jan. 14 (CNA) The victory of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Lai Ching-te (賴清德) on Saturday will likely bring increased pressure from China, as well as gridlock in the legislature after no party won a majority, according to scholars.

A new round of Chinese military, economic and trade pressure on Taiwan could begin soon, according to Kuo Yu-jen (郭育仁), deputy head of Taipei-based think tank the Institute for National Policy Research (INPR).

Lai has been targeted by Beijing's propaganda machine for his earlier description of himself as a "pragmatic independence worker," although he has sought to back track from that characterization in recent months.

The pressure can be expected from Sunday to early March when the National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held, the expert said.

There could be another wave of pressure from late March when the two conferences are set to conclude, to May 20 when Lai takes office, he said.

Subsequently, China might adopt a low-profile approach to avoid becoming a focal point during the United States' presidential election in November, he suggested.

However, following the U.S. election, there is a possibility that China will once again escalate the pressure on Taiwan, Kuo said.

Kuo argued that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) will be more assertive than in 2016, indicating that Lai will encounter more pressure from China than the current President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) did when she took office eight years ago.

He further noted that, aside from military and economic coercion, China could escalate its disinformation campaign against Taiwan.

This might involve characterizing Lai as a "troublemaker" both in terms of cross-strait relations and on the international stage, he said.

On the domestic political front, experts believe political gridlock in Taiwan's 113-seat Legislative Yuan is likely as Saturday's elections saw the DPP win 51 seats, the Kuomintang (KMT) 52, and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) eight.

In other words, Lai faces a Legislature where no party has a majority - the same situation faced by DPP President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) from 2000 to 2008, according to Political scientist Dachi Liao (廖達琪).

However, Chen at that time had KMT Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平), who was an outstanding mediator between different parties, Liao told CNA.

The future head of the Legislative Yuan, whether it is the DPP's current speaker You Si-kun (游錫堃), the KMT's preferred candidate Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜), who topped the party's list of 34 legislator-at-large nominations, or a TPP candidate, is likely to be less skilled than Wang, she said.

The number of bills passed by the Legislative Yuan during Chen's administration was higher than under former KMT president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) from 2008 to 2016 when the KMT had a majority in the lawmaking body, Liao said, citing statistics.

Meanwhile, military experts have said they do not foresee any major change in Lai's national defense policies from those of the current government.

With the People's Liberation Army continuing to build up its capabilities and Xi pushing for unification with Taiwan, by force if necessary, it is unlikely that Taiwan's national defense policies will change significantly, Lin Ying-yu (林穎佑), an assistant professor at Tamkang University Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies, told CNA.

Chieh-chung (揭仲), a researcher at the Taiwan-based Association of Strategic Foresight agreed, saying the DPP is unlikely to cancel any major defense policies, including the Indigenous Defense Submarine program, which sparked debate in the run-up to Saturday's elections.

Generally speaking, Taiwan only makes major changes to its defense policies at the behest of the United States, and this is not likely to change, he added.

However, Lin noted, with the DPP failing to secure a legislative majority in Saturday's legislative election, its military projects could face more hurdles in the legislature.

As a result, the Ministry of National Defense will have to work harder to communicate with the opposition legislative caucuses, maintain a good relationship with the media, and explain policies to the public if related bills are to pass smoothly, Lin said.

Update

▶ President-elect Lai Ching-te promises to maintain cross-strait status quo

▶ DPP wins presidency but loses majority in Legislature

▶ No party gets legislative majority; small TPP to play key role

▶ KMT's Hou calls for national unity post-election

Election day blog: Taiwan chooses a new president